To participate on our message boards you must register for either a Fan account (free) or Insider account ($4.99/month). Once registered, you can login via the link above the site logo at the top of the page or through the link here within the message boards.

To register for a free account to access the message boards, click here. To become an Insider and get full site access, click here.

2021 Projected Dept...
 
Notifications
Clear all

2021 Projected Depth Chart  

Page 1 / 2
  RSS

Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 57
09/02/2020 5:18 pm  

So we're all starved for some minor league content, so I decided to do a projection now that we're past the trade deadline. This is probably a very fuzzy projection, as there's a lot we don't know about how guys have developed, as all of that has been behind closed doors. But, I will make the attempt. I will note any relevant guys who are either minor league free agents or would be after 2021 (the 2015 draft class). Those guys in their last year tend to be the first one cut. At an overall level, I will say that there's a ton of good prospects in the middle infield, and likely some of them are going to be down in Arizona because there's just not enough at bats for them all. Also, this projection assumes that Mahoning Valley will be cut, and we will have just 4 full season affiliates and the rookie league teams in AZL/DSL. Which is notable because of the backlog of young prospects that otherwise might have been in AZL and going to MV in 2021.

CLEVELAND:

Catchers: Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges

Infielders: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yu Chang, Mike Freeman*

Outfielders: Franmil Reyes, Josh Naylor, Tyler Naquin, Delino DeShields Jr., Oscar Mercado

Starters: Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie

Relievers: Brad Hand, James Karinchak, Adam Cimber, Nick Wittgren, Emmanuel Clase, Adam Plutko, Phil Maton, Kyle Nelson*

Extra: Jake Bauers, Jefry Rodriguez (both out of options, as are Plutko, Chang)

Departures: Cesar Hernandez, Dominic Leone, Oliver Perez (free agents)

Analysis: This isn't projecting any particular free agents or trades. Mike Freeman/Yu Chang at 2B is obviously a hole and I think one that will likely be addressed in some way (with either one then being DFA'd). Kyle Nelson is here because he's the best lefty reliever in the system and after Perez leaves there isn't another on the 40 unless they convert Logan Allen or Sam Hentges.

 

COLUMBUS:

Catchers: Beau Taylor, Gavin Collins

Infielders: Bobby Bradley, Owen Miller, Ernie Clement, Nolan Jones, Tyler Krieger*

Outfielders: Daniel Johnson, Alex Call, Bradley Zimmer, Mitch Longo, Ka'ai Tom*

Starters: Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill, Scott Moss, Eli Morgan, Sam Hentges

Relievers: Robert Broom, Ben Krauth, Nick Sandlin, Cam Hill, Tanner Tully, Danny Young*, Kyle Dowdy*

Extra: Connor Marabell*, Juan Hillman*, Justin Garza*, Luke Wakamatsu*, Andruw Monasterio*, Jordan Stephens*, Dalbert Siri*

Departures: Argenis Angulo, Henry Martinez, Jared Robinson, Wilson Garcia, Jodd Carter, Anthony Gose, Giljegiljaw Kunghuan (minor league free agents), Logan Ice (retired)

Notes: Anyone here and in any level below with an asterisk (*) is entering their final year before minor league free agency. Which means they will be the first to get cut if there's a roster crunch, which there very well could be given the reduction of one team. The bullpen at AAA is particularly hard hit by minor league free agents, also the catching depth. It's also pretty hard to look at the outfield depth for that reason. Tom and Marabell are both guys who have shown really good results at times in their careers, and the death of the minors for 2020 really hurts their chances to make good on their longshots to make the bigs. I'm putting Quantrill and Allen in starting roles here, instead of moving to the bullpen, but both *could* end up there. I expect a few free agent signings will fill out the bullpen and bench, covering for any injuries and possibly allowing the team to release some of those guys who would be in their last year.

AKRON

Catchers: Bo Naylor, Mike Rivera

Infielders: Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias, Marcos Gonzalez, Tyler Friis, Daniel Schneeman

Outfield: Steven Kwan, Austen Wade, Will Benson, Cody Farhat, Mitch Reeves (1B/LF), Oscar Gonzalez*

Starters: JC Mejia, Adam Scott, Joey Cantillo, Kirk McCarty, Juan Mota

Relievers: Dakody Clemmer, Manuel Alvarez, Aaron Pinto, Jonathan Teaney, Tim Herrin, Cody Morris, Zack Draper

Extras: Clark Scolamiero, Trent Brooks, Pedro Alfonseca, Johnathan Laureano

Notes: Mejia and Scott should probably be in AAA, but the rest of this group is rather aggressively promoted. For Naylor, Benson, Cantillo and Arias I'm essentially crediting them being in Lake County this year as a year of development that others missed out on, so they make sense. I put Herrin here because I see a lot of what he's working on via Twitter, and being 24 next year it made some sense to have him be the one skipping Lynchburg. Draper and Morris are starters by trade, but I'm projecting them here because of a logjam of quality starters. They could be transitioned relatively easily.

LYNCHBURG

Catchers: Bryan Lavastida, Josh Rollette

Infielders: Miguel Jerez (1B/OF), Aaron Bracho, Brayan Rocchio, Jose Fermin, Richard Palacios, Raynel Delgado

Outfielders: George Valera, Will Brennan, Hosea Nelson, Jon Englemann, Quentin Holmes

Starters: Ray Burgos, Luis Oviedo, Alex Royalty, Shane McCarthy, Nick Gallagher

Relievers: Eli Lingos, Jake Miednick, Tom Ponticelli, Kellen Rholl, Matt Turner, Luis Valdez, Skyler Arias

Extras: Brady Aiken*, Randy Valladeres*, Gregori Vazquez*, Brian Eichorn, Jack DeGroat, Liam Jenkins, Serafino Brito, Kyle Marman, Francis Cespedes, Luis Sanchez, Ulysses Cantu*, Jesse Berardi, Ike Freeman, Connor Smith, Dillon Persinger, Billy Wilson, Daniel Schneeman, Eric Rodriguez, Angel Lopez Alvarez, 

Notes: This is easily the least inspiring group. Bracho is getting credit for being in the 60 man pool here to skip Lake County, giving him Rocchio to pair with up the middle because... someone has to skip the level. It is a crowded infield with Fermin and Palacios also being respectable prospects in their own rights. I'm projecting something of a timeshare here between 2B/3B/SS and DH for those 4. Possibly Fermin would be up in Akron sooner than later (in a scenario where he replaces Freeman going up). I have a lot of pitchers listed as extra here who finished with Mahoning Valley in 2019 but are older. 

LAKE COUNTY

Catchers: Yanier Diaz, Andres Melendez

Infielders: Joe Naranjo, Jose Tena, Yordyz Valdez, Christian Cairo, Jordan Brown

Outfielders: Will Bartlett, Johnathon Rodriguez, Alexfri Planez, Cody Holland

Starters: Lenny Torres, Daniel Espino, Ethan Hankins, Carlos Vargas, Tanner Burns, Logan Allen, Mason Hickman, Hunter Gaddis

Relievers: Randy LaBaut, Nick Mickolajchak, Kevin Kelly, Zach Hart, Kevin Coulter

Notes: I've listed 8 starters here, as all of the pitchers here would be entering their first full seasons as starters. So I'm assuming some piggyback work here. Which is incidentally the only reason I kept Hankins & Espino down here. Being in the alternate site camp, they're likely getting in good work right now but still won't be fully stretched out. I think they might spend the first month or two here, and move up rather quickly to allow the others to grow into a full starter's role. 

The following are still in the org, but I don't see a place to put them at a full season affiliate

Catchers: Felix Fernandez, Mike Amditis, Joe Donovan, Micael Ramirez, Richard Paz

Middle Infielders: Gabriel Rodriguez (#11 pipeline prospect), Carson Tucker (12),  Angel Hernandez (21), Milan Tolentino (24), Joab Gonzalez, Landy Pena, Jesus Maestre, Alonzo Richardson, Gaspar Palacio, Jothson Flores (3B), Victor Nova (3B), Makesondian Kelkboom (3B)

1B: Henderson De Oleo, Michael Cooper, Jeikol Contreras, Jhonkensy Noel, Cesar Idrogo

Outfielders: Petey Halpin (18), Julian Escobedo, Marlin Made, 

Pitchers ending 2019 in MV: Xzavion Curry, Andrew Misiaszek, Eric Mock, Jose Oca, Jerson Ramirez

This is not including the pitchers that ended 2019 in AZL, or any DSL players. Notable DSL players are infielders Junior Sanquinton, Jose Baez and Jesus Lara.

 

Any notes, missing players or disagreements welcome 🙂


Quote
Marty Taber
(@mtaber)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 22
09/02/2020 6:32 pm  

Thanks for tackling this! I’m overwhelmed!  My initial comment is that we need five more farm teams so all of our middle infielders can play!


ReplyQuote
Mackie_Lundquist
(@mackie_lundquist)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 15
09/03/2020 9:38 am  

Wow. This is outstanding. Thanks for taking the time.

Lake County might have the highest collection of prospect starters in A ball history. Starters can move through the ranks quickly if they keep getting guys out, so I expect at least couple of these guys get as far as AA or even AAA by the end of 2021. Certainly high A for many of them.


Edible14 liked
ReplyQuote
Mackie_Lundquist
(@mackie_lundquist)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 15
09/03/2020 9:40 am  

So the NYP league is being abolished and all short-season A level teams and leagues? Are there any other changes we should know about in the minor league system?

 

PS--I hate losing the NYP. Penny wise, pound foolish.


ReplyQuote
Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 57
09/03/2020 10:55 am  
Posted by: @mackie_lundquist

So the NYP league is being abolished and all short-season A level teams and leagues? Are there any other changes we should know about in the minor league system?

 

PS--I hate losing the NYP. Penny wise, pound foolish.

Nothing is final yet, that was the proposed list last fall (would kill NYPL, pioneer, appy entirely, a lot of other teams). List of those teams:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/16/sports/baseball/mlb-minor-league-proposal.html

The northwest league I believe stays and becomes a full time league.

It was heavily opposed by MiLB (and... Bernie Sanders). But that was before the pandemic. Pretty much since then MiLB has accepted that this will happen. But exactly which teams will be cut is not final, supposedly each team is evaluating which teams they want to keep/drop.

My thing is that the FSL should be dropped before the NYPL is. FSL is the lowest drawing circuit and most of it is held in spring training complexes making it basically "GCL, but with fancier names". There's a bunch of little things i would also change (like keeping the Frederick Keys and making them a Nationals affiliate). 

The 5 round draft thing from this year is partly inspired by this coming change.


ReplyQuote
Mackie_Lundquist
(@mackie_lundquist)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 15
09/03/2020 12:28 pm  
Posted by: @edible14
Posted by: @mackie_lundquist

So the NYP league is being abolished and all short-season A level teams and leagues? Are there any other changes we should know about in the minor league system?

 

PS--I hate losing the NYP. Penny wise, pound foolish.

Nothing is final yet, that was the proposed list last fall (would kill NYPL, pioneer, appy entirely, a lot of other teams). List of those teams:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/16/sports/baseball/mlb-minor-league-proposal.html

The northwest league I believe stays and becomes a full time league.

It was heavily opposed by MiLB (and... Bernie Sanders). But that was before the pandemic. Pretty much since then MiLB has accepted that this will happen. But exactly which teams will be cut is not final, supposedly each team is evaluating which teams they want to keep/drop.

My thing is that the FSL should be dropped before the NYPL is. FSL is the lowest drawing circuit and most of it is held in spring training complexes making it basically "GCL, but with fancier names". There's a bunch of little things i would also change (like keeping the Frederick Keys and making them a Nationals affiliate). 

The 5 round draft thing from this year is partly inspired by this coming change.

Another reason to love Bernie Sanders, if nothing else.

MLB could work with MiLB to generate greater revenues in MiLB I think. The quality of play in AA, for example, is dramatically higher by comparison to the caliber of play in NCAA football or NCAA basketball, but both of those sports cash in on the highly dubious connection to a university. (I say that as one who was a professor at Big Ten universities for 32 years. I saw what a joke college education is for many of these "student-athletes.")

In the long run, the goodwill generated by having MiLB teams is grossly underappreciated. That is the goodwill that builds generations of fans. Lose that and you can't get it back. Rather than being a cornerstone of the American experience going back to the Civil War, Baseball becomes just another industry striving for the consumer dollar, of no greater intrinsic value than the X Games or memes.

 

 

 


Edible14 liked
ReplyQuote
Mackie_Lundquist
(@mackie_lundquist)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 15
09/04/2020 9:19 am  

This collapse of MiLB will really hurt small market teams like the Tribe more than rich teams. The ability to generate prospects is the key to success for small market teams, and now it will be much harder apparently to sign and develop a large number of players. Only 4 minor league teams, when the Tribe had 8 1/2 in 2019, including the Dominican league?

Totally Bogus.


ReplyQuote
Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 57
09/04/2020 9:40 pm  

They'll still have 7 (and a half), DSL/AZL/GCL will be unaffected. Weirdly the team this hurts most is the Rockies, as they don't have an AZL team but instead had a NWL and Pioneer team. They'll have to negotiate with the Diamondbacks to host another AZL team at the complex they share, and if Grand Junction is lost then they'll lose their closest affiliate.

The elimination of the Appy league makes a little more sense. Essentially teams like the Yankees had been using it as an extra rookie league team. 


ReplyQuote
Themaven
(@themaven)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 44
09/10/2020 4:58 pm  

Nice job!

You haven't figured team options into the major league roster.

Carlos Santana,Hand and Roberto Perez all have team options(totaling 33 million) for next season and it's a foregone conclusion that some,if not all, of them won't be back.Obviously this will affect the depth charts for the entire system.

I posted an estimated 26 man roster budget on another thread and without any of the options being picked up it was at 77.5 million.I don't see the Tribe spending much more than that that given the economic environment we are in.

Either Lindor goes or these three go, in my estimation.Santana is gone regardless.

It makes making a depth chart a lot harder,especially with no minor league seasons being played,but it is the expected reality.


ReplyQuote
Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 57
09/11/2020 11:32 pm  

I don't think they decline options on any, because they know all 3 are reasonable contracts and they could recoup value in a trade if need be (a la Kluber). I anticipate those trades would complicate things significantly.

Santana might not get $17m/year on the market, but he would get more than that on a multi year deal. He's a proven bat, who's game is likely to age well (power, good eye, approach, solid defense). His game isn't without flaws but he's absolutely worth $17m on a one year deal. They should be able to find a team to take that on if need be. They should also just keep him because they don't have another viable option right now. If Bauers or Bradley were remotely ready they would have gotten a chance by now with Reyes moving to the OF. They aren't good. We need Santana or we need to swing a trade. (Naylor might be the answer? Too soon to say, but that would be about the only thing that would sway me)

Brad Hand is one of the most effective relief pitchers in baseball. Any competitive team would take him on for their bullpen at $10m. 

Roberto is cheap, he is a face of the franchise, and notably... the catching depth sucks. Hedges is a reasonable replacement but who backs up from there is... not. It's either Beau Taylor or.... back to the scrap heap. The only person in the org that's seen above A ball and isn't a pending free agent is Gavin Collins, who was developed first as a 3B/1B so is likely not a good catcher defensively. $5.5m for a guy who is the best defensive catcher in baseball, beloved in the org and can get hot with the bat... should be a no brainer. 

They have a number of tradeable pieces that can get them as far under as they need to (Carrasco being a big one, as he's due $12m and would get 10&5 no trade rights early next year). They have exercised a couple of questionable options in past seasons - Kluber and Brantley coming to mind. Santana is a lot closer to Kluber/Brantley than to anyone they've declined like Kipnis. I don't find declining their options to be likely. 


ReplyQuote
DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 207
09/12/2020 2:53 pm  
Posted by: @edible14

I don't think they decline options on any, because they know all 3 are reasonable contracts and they could recoup value in a trade if need be (a la Kluber). I anticipate those trades would complicate things significantly.

Santana might not get $17m/year on the market, but he would get more than that on a multi year deal. He's a proven bat, who's game is likely to age well (power, good eye, approach, solid defense). His game isn't without flaws but he's absolutely worth $17m on a one year deal. They should be able to find a team to take that on if need be. They should also just keep him because they don't have another viable option right now. If Bauers or Bradley were remotely ready they would have gotten a chance by now with Reyes moving to the OF. They aren't good. We need Santana or we need to swing a trade. (Naylor might be the answer? Too soon to say, but that would be about the only thing that would sway me)

Brad Hand is one of the most effective relief pitchers in baseball. Any competitive team would take him on for their bullpen at $10m. 

Roberto is cheap, he is a face of the franchise, and notably... the catching depth sucks. Hedges is a reasonable replacement but who backs up from there is... not. It's either Beau Taylor or.... back to the scrap heap. The only person in the org that's seen above A ball and isn't a pending free agent is Gavin Collins, who was developed first as a 3B/1B so is likely not a good catcher defensively. $5.5m for a guy who is the best defensive catcher in baseball, beloved in the org and can get hot with the bat... should be a no brainer. 

They have a number of tradeable pieces that can get them as far under as they need to (Carrasco being a big one, as he's due $12m and would get 10&5 no trade rights early next year). They have exercised a couple of questionable options in past seasons - Kluber and Brantley coming to mind. Santana is a lot closer to Kluber/Brantley than to anyone they've declined like Kipnis. I don't find declining their options to be likely. 

I just don't see the Indians picking up Santana's option.   I suppose if he finished out the season/playoffs producing as he did last year, it might be possible.  But, even then, you have to consider the Indians' financial situation, the expected FA market in '21, Santana's age, and that the team may be looking at 1B as Luplow's ultimate position.  IMO, there's no way Santana will get $17MM in FA, and given how the market has treated aging veterans in the recent past, I think he'll be lucky to get half that.  I also believe that the Indians should be in a position to replace Santana, if that's necessary, for a substantially reduced outlay.

I agree about Perez, and have opined on his option previously.

I'm on the fence about Hand.  His value in '21 will likely be impacted by how he finishes the season.  If he's able to continue closing out games, and doing so relatively easily notwithstanding his reduced velo, then it might be possible.  But, I would be concerned with how effective he might be over a regular full season, particularly given his heavy usage the last few years and the reduced production he experienced at the end of last season.  Also, remember that the Indians will have Clase next year to go with Karinchak - not to mention other rising young depth options that might include hard-throwing LHP Sam Hentges.  Hand would be a nice luxury, but one they might not be able to afford.  I'm not sure I agree that any competitive team would be willing to take on his contract, but if so, that would probably be the Indians' best option.

I don't see Carrasco as being tradeable.  IMO, his special connection with the team and area would make it difficult for the front office to send him to another team and city.

I think the wild card in all this is the Indians' precarious financial situation.  We can surmise it's bad, but don't know just how bad, or what decisions will be forced upon it as a result.


ReplyQuote
Themaven
(@themaven)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 44
09/13/2020 6:31 pm  

I don't think you can ignore the financial reality major league baseball is in.

If you think the Tribe is going to pick up all three options on Santana, Hand and Perez thus taking their payroll from 96 million on opening day this season to 110 million next season after the financial disaster of this season, you are dreaming.

As for signing and trading them,virtually every team is going to be in the same financial boat the Tribe is in,do you actually think they would give up assets for players with these kinds of contracts?

I don't see a big market for any of them,only the handful of teams whose salaries don't eclipse their TV money will be in play for these kinds of players and those teams may prefer to shop the free agent market where there are sure to be bargains (without the loss of assets in a trade),since a lot of options won't be picked up all over both leagues.

The Indians have already tipped their hand as to the future with the acquisitions of Naylor,Clase and Hedges.Their future first baseman,back end reliever and catcher,with a 29 million dollar salary savings.They wouldn't have made the Clevinger trade without the inclusion of Hedges and Miller and they can keep Hedges and Leon for what they would pay just Perez.


ReplyQuote
Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 57
09/13/2020 11:19 pm  

If they need go get down to, say, $90m, the quickest and easiest way to do it is to trade Lindor. And they can do that. They have offers that have been submitted going back years. In an absolutely worst case scenario where they need to cut money, Lindor is basically in the same boat as Santana, Hand and Perez. They're all essentially one year rentals.

Perez isn't that much more expensive than Hedges (currently $3m in arb, going to get something of a raise on that) and he's controlled for just as long despite being older. You could trade either if you really needed. You don't need to decline Berto's option and lose him for nothing. So I think basically the only one I can see them declining is Santana. 

I'm not handicapping where they're going to want to put payroll next year, I have no way of knowing. But the big pieces of that puzzle should all be very movable. It really more comes down to who can most easily be replaced. Some combination of Owen Miller, Nolan Jones, Yu Chang and Tyler Freeman will be helping in the infield next year. Unless you're moving Nolan to 1B I think that means Frankie is more replaceable than Carlos (again, Bradley and Bauers *should have been* ready here... but it's pretty clear the front office does not believe in them. And Naylor hasn't convinced anyone yet that he can do that). 

They're crafty about getting trades done. They don't need to punt an asset and get nothing back.


ReplyQuote
Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 57
09/21/2020 10:21 pm  

Something to keep in mind in terms of who might get a more aggressive promotion is who plays in fall instructs this year. IndiansPro on Twitter has this list of names:

RHP Daniel Espino

RHP Hunter Gaddis

RHP Carlos Vargas

RHP Eli Morgan

RHP Ethan Hankins

3B) Nolan Jones

SS) Tyler Freeman

2B) Aaron Bracho

2B) Richie Palacios

1B) Joe Naranjo

OF Steven Kwan

 

(More names may be coming in, will update as I can)

 

Notable: Rocchio still stuck in Venezuela, can't come


ReplyQuote
DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 207
09/22/2020 11:21 pm  

I'm concerned that this may be a lost year of development for Rocchio, which is unfortunate for any prospect, but particularly so for one of the team's top prospects, and a player that was/is considered the eventual heir apparent to Lindor, even taking into account the acquisition of Gabriel Arias in the Clevinger trade.


ReplyQuote
Page 1 / 2
Share: