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Mackie_Lundquist
(@mackie_lundquist)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 15
08/31/2020 12:56 pm  
Posted by: @calbuckeyerob
Posted by: @mackie_lundquist

Great trade for SD. They clear out a lot of roster dead weight and second tier prospects they don't need and get 2 plus years of a stud starter. I make that deal any day of the week if I am SD.

It is now official: the Indians now have more middle infield prospects than any team in the history of major league baseball.

 

Maybe this was the best the tribe could do.

On a serious note, how do you possibly develop and assess that many middle IF prospects? There are not enough minor league affiliates to give them reps. 

I only look at the rankings of Tribe prospects, the top international signings, and high draft picks. By those criteria, we are weighted down with middle infielders. It is an area of extreme emphasis, exemplified by the drafting of Cairo and Valdes a couple of years ago. I wouldn't protest if we had a period where the Indians emphasized guys who might be able to someday hit major league pitching and do so with some power.

 


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 59
08/31/2020 1:13 pm  
Posted by: @mtaber

Very disappointed in this return. Hedges is nobody and redundant. Naylor is unproven but was fairly highly rated a couple years ago.  Two more young middle infield guys. No immediate pitching help. And we also lose Allen (no big loss) and a ptbnl. 

Definitely no “stud outfielder”

 

Definitely no “catcher who can hit”

 

Definitely no “stud pitching prospects”

 

what... 

the...

 

F#CK...

Summing up my feelings very succinctly.

 


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
08/31/2020 4:27 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @edible14

MLB pipeline has Arias as the Padres #7 prospect, Cantillo as their #9, and Miller as their #11.

Naylor likely slots right into a starting role. 

The big questions here are Hedges and Quantrill. Hedges is a good defended but no Bebo, and also isn't hitting. Is Leon being let go, do they go with 3 catchers, or do they option Hedges? 

Do they add Quantrill to the bullpen (likely leading to Cimber being sent down)? Or do they send him to Lake County to be stretched out towards being a starter again?

With adding 1 extra to the 40, that means someone gets DFA'd. Leon or Beau Taylor would make sense. 

With 6 in and 2 out, that also likely means somebody or multiple people (i think they were at 57 but not sure) get cut from the 60 man player pool - maybe one of the veteran catchers like Rupp?

I'm not a great fan of MLB Pipeline. For comparison, Fangraphs has Cantillo, Arias, and Miller @ 12, 16, and 25.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-53-prospects-san-diego-padres/

Cantillo seems like a typical Cleveland pitcher whose high-end potential can be developed.

Keith Law has Cantillo, Arias, and Miller @ 13, 7, and 9, respectively.

https://theathletic.com/1653694/2020/03/05/keith-laws-prospect-rankings-san-diego-padres/

Per Law, scouts think that Cantillo is a depth SP or long RP.  Longenhagen thinks that Cantillo has the frame to potentially add some velo, which could also aid his high-spin CB.  He's projected to have above-average control.

Law sees Arias as a low average, decent power guy with a plus glove at SS.  Longenhagen points to pitch recognition and plate discipline issues, although he worked on the former in the offseason, and a grooved swing that creates a large gap between his raw power and game power.

2B/SS Owen Miller is a contact/average guy with decent plate discipline, but limited power that will likely limit his ceiling.  He was drafted out of college in '18 and might be ready next year.

According the The Athletic's Zack Meisel, one NL front office evaluator said that "Cleveland crushed this", referring to the surplus value the Indians got in this trade.  As with the Bauer trade last season, the Indians are trying to thread the needle, getting enough now production to help this season in addition to adding upgrades to their farm system to bolster production in future seasons.

https://theathletic.com/2032894/2020/08/31/what-the-mike-clevinger-trade-deadline-deal-means-for-the-cleveland-indians/

Josh Naylor is listed at 250 lbs.  However, Meisel says that Naylor dropped 30 lbs in the offseason to address some defensive shortcomings in the OF.  His defense is still considered a bit of an issue, but not as much as last year.

Naylor, Quantrill, and Hedges are expected to join the Indians, per Meisel.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
08/31/2020 4:54 pm  

By the way, the PTBNL that the Indians have agreed to trade to SD is someone that isn't on the team's 60-man roster.  No player not on the 60-man roster can be included in a trade during this season.  I don't know when team's are permitted to announce the trading of these players.  I assume it won't be until the offseason.  And a full evaluation of the trade can't be made until that player is known.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 187
08/31/2020 4:59 pm  

Matt Waldron is reportedly the PTBNL


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
08/31/2020 5:31 pm  

Away from Petco Field, Josh Naylor's triple slash was .239/.314/.415 in '19 and .389/.421/.667 (in 19 PA) in '20, or .284/.354/.452 (175 PA) in his 1+ seasons in the majors, which translates to an overall 111 wRC+.  

He has a better batting line against same-handed pitchers.  His triple slash in 1+ seasons against LHH is .314/.340/.431 (105 wRC+), and against RHH is .239/.311/.399 (87 wRC+).

The plus power that was projected in his scouting reports has yet to show.


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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 18
08/31/2020 6:40 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @edible14

MLB pipeline has Arias as the Padres #7 prospect, Cantillo as their #9, and Miller as their #11.

Naylor likely slots right into a starting role. 

The big questions here are Hedges and Quantrill. Hedges is a good defended but no Bebo, and also isn't hitting. Is Leon being let go, do they go with 3 catchers, or do they option Hedges? 

Do they add Quantrill to the bullpen (likely leading to Cimber being sent down)? Or do they send him to Lake County to be stretched out towards being a starter again?

With adding 1 extra to the 40, that means someone gets DFA'd. Leon or Beau Taylor would make sense. 

With 6 in and 2 out, that also likely means somebody or multiple people (i think they were at 57 but not sure) get cut from the 60 man player pool - maybe one of the veteran catchers like Rupp?

I'm not a great fan of MLB Pipeline. For comparison, Fangraphs has Cantillo, Arias, and Miller @ 12, 16, and 25.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-53-prospects-san-diego-padres/

Cantillo seems like a typical Cleveland pitcher whose high-end potential can be developed.

Keith Law has Cantillo, Arias, and Miller @ 13, 7, and 9, respectively.

https://theathletic.com/1653694/2020/03/05/keith-laws-prospect-rankings-san-diego-padres/

Per Law, scouts think that Cantillo is a depth SP or long RP.  Longenhagen thinks that Cantillo has the frame to potentially add some velo, which could also aid his high-spin CB.  He's projected to have above-average control.

Law sees Arias as a low average, decent power guy with a plus glove at SS.  Longenhagen points to pitch recognition and plate discipline issues, although he worked on the former in the offseason, and a grooved swing that creates a large gap between his raw power and game power.

2B/SS Owen Miller is a contact/average guy with decent plate discipline, but limited power that will likely limit his ceiling.  He was drafted out of college in '18 and might be ready next year.

According the The Athletic's Zack Meisel, one NL front office evaluator said that "Cleveland crushed this", referring to the surplus value the Indians got in this trade.  As with the Bauer trade last season, the Indians are trying to thread the needle, getting enough now production to help this season in addition to adding upgrades to their farm system to bolster production in future seasons.

https://theathletic.com/2032894/2020/08/31/what-the-mike-clevinger-trade-deadline-deal-means-for-the-cleveland-indians/

Josh Naylor is listed at 250 lbs.  However, Meisel says that Naylor dropped 30 lbs in the offseason to address some defensive shortcomings in the OF.  His defense is still considered a bit of an issue, but not as much as last year.

Naylor, Quantrill, and Hedges are expected to join the Indians, per Meisel.

What does "surplus value" mean in this context?  If I trade an 8 and a 2 and get six guys that project as a 3 or 4 did I win because 20ish is more than 10?  Because I would argue that mediocre guys are everywhere but Clevinger is not.  To me, Arias is the only one of real potential in this deal. The rest are just guys.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 187
08/31/2020 6:58 pm  

Interesting hearing CA say Quantrill is in the BP NOW but may be utilized as an SP in the future. I'd love to see what they can do with him. CA also notes the pitching development group was excited to get Joey Cantillo, who is only 20 and developing. I think 4/5 SP is his projection with 3 in the realm of possibility. 

Arias is the gem of this deal. The glove can play SS long term, the bat needs work, and he's very young. Miller solid floor/ceiling type. Maybe everyday 2b with the probable outcome a versatile UTL man 3b, 2b, SS.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
08/31/2020 6:58 pm  

@calbuckeyerob

Surplus value is the excess value produced, measured in WAR converted to $$, that a player is expected to produce during his time under team control, over his projected cost during that period.


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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 18
08/31/2020 7:07 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg

@calbuckeyerob

Surplus value is the excess value produced, measured in WAR converted to $$, that a player is expected to produce during his time under team control, over his projected cost during that period.

So a bunch of low paid mediocre players is more valuable than one higher paid impact player even if you can easily find the low paid mediocre guys in your system?


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
08/31/2020 7:09 pm  
Posted by: @willhoo99

Interesting hearing CA say Quantrill is in the BP NOW but may be utilized as an SP in the future. I'd love to see what they can do with him. CA also notes the pitching development group was excited to get Joey Cantillo, who is only 20 and developing. I think 4/5 SP is his projection with 3 in the realm of possibility. 

Arias is the gem of this deal. The glove can play SS long term, the bat needs work, and he's very young. Miller solid floor/ceiling type. Maybe everyday 2b with the probable outcome a versatile UTL man 3b, 2b, SS.

Longenhagen thinks that Cantillo is the best prospect obtained in the trade, notwithstanding the fact that Arias' ceiling is higher, and I gather from Antonetti's comments that he may have a similar view.  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-clevelands-prospect-additions-from-the-clevinger-deal/

There appears to be a good deal of variability to the potential success of Arias, with a decent floor due to his defense.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 187
08/31/2020 7:21 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @willhoo99

Interesting hearing CA say Quantrill is in the BP NOW but may be utilized as an SP in the future. I'd love to see what they can do with him. CA also notes the pitching development group was excited to get Joey Cantillo, who is only 20 and developing. I think 4/5 SP is his projection with 3 in the realm of possibility. 

Arias is the gem of this deal. The glove can play SS long term, the bat needs work, and he's very young. Miller solid floor/ceiling type. Maybe everyday 2b with the probable outcome a versatile UTL man 3b, 2b, SS.

Longenhagen thinks that Cantillo is the best prospect obtained in the trade, notwithstanding the fact that Arias' ceiling is higher, and I gather from Antonetti's comments that he may have a similar view.  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-clevelands-prospect-additions-from-the-clevinger-deal/

There appears to be a good deal of variability to the potential success of Arias, with a decent floor due to his defense.

I can see that.

Arias has a big ceiling he is a top 5-10 prospect now. Cantillo more of a 10-15 prospect and Miller in the 15-20 range for me.

We all know how they develop pitching so if he is the best piece long term hopefully it means he's become a beast on the mound 


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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 18
08/31/2020 7:29 pm  

Cantillo better find some extra velocity in Cleveland or he is probably destined for a bullpen role fairly soon.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
08/31/2020 7:30 pm  
Posted by: @willhoo99
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @willhoo99

Interesting hearing CA say Quantrill is in the BP NOW but may be utilized as an SP in the future. I'd love to see what they can do with him. CA also notes the pitching development group was excited to get Joey Cantillo, who is only 20 and developing. I think 4/5 SP is his projection with 3 in the realm of possibility. 

Arias is the gem of this deal. The glove can play SS long term, the bat needs work, and he's very young. Miller solid floor/ceiling type. Maybe everyday 2b with the probable outcome a versatile UTL man 3b, 2b, SS.

Longenhagen thinks that Cantillo is the best prospect obtained in the trade, notwithstanding the fact that Arias' ceiling is higher, and I gather from Antonetti's comments that he may have a similar view.  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-clevelands-prospect-additions-from-the-clevinger-deal/

There appears to be a good deal of variability to the potential success of Arias, with a decent floor due to his defense.

I can see that.

Arias has a big ceiling he is a top 5-10 prospect now. Cantillo more of a 10-15 prospect and Miller in the 15-20 range for me.

We all know how they develop pitching so if he is the best piece long term hopefully it means he's become a beast on the mound 

Per Fangraphs, Arias, Cantillo, and Miller are now ranked #16, #14, and #31, respectively, in the system.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=cle


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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 18
08/31/2020 7:43 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @willhoo99
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @willhoo99

Interesting hearing CA say Quantrill is in the BP NOW but may be utilized as an SP in the future. I'd love to see what they can do with him. CA also notes the pitching development group was excited to get Joey Cantillo, who is only 20 and developing. I think 4/5 SP is his projection with 3 in the realm of possibility. 

Arias is the gem of this deal. The glove can play SS long term, the bat needs work, and he's very young. Miller solid floor/ceiling type. Maybe everyday 2b with the probable outcome a versatile UTL man 3b, 2b, SS.

Longenhagen thinks that Cantillo is the best prospect obtained in the trade, notwithstanding the fact that Arias' ceiling is higher, and I gather from Antonetti's comments that he may have a similar view.  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-clevelands-prospect-additions-from-the-clevinger-deal/

There appears to be a good deal of variability to the potential success of Arias, with a decent floor due to his defense.

I can see that.

Arias has a big ceiling he is a top 5-10 prospect now. Cantillo more of a 10-15 prospect and Miller in the 15-20 range for me.

We all know how they develop pitching so if he is the best piece long term hopefully it means he's become a beast on the mound 

Per Fangraphs, Arias, Cantillo, and Miller are now ranked #16, #14, and #31, respectively, in the system.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=cle

If accurate, that is kind of depressing.


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