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Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 69
08/31/2020 10:35 pm  

Another thing I find baffling about this is that... where exactly are they going to play all these middle infield guys?

2019 draft guys - Yordyz Valdez, Christian Cairo, Jordan Brown were all within the first 6 rounds, haven't played full season ball yet 

2020 Draft saw them pick Tolentino and Tucker

A bunch of the top 30 prospects in the org (by Pipeline) are 2B/SS - noted in parentheses here:

Columbus - Clement, Miller (19) - Krieger and Monasterio are depth

Akron - T. Freeman (2), Arias (5), Fermin?, Palacios? - C. Smith, L. Wakamatsu, Friis depth/cut

Lynchburg - Bracho (8), Rocchio (7), Delgado, M. Gonzalez - Berardi, Schneeman depth/cut

Lake County - Tena (27), Valdez, Cairo

There is no Mahoning Valley/short season A next year. So that leaves just the rookie leagues. And you have:

G. Rodriguez (11), A. Martinez (21) , Tucker (12), Tolentino (24), J. Brown, Sanquintin, Pestrano, Devers, A. Contreras, Caminero, Genao, Alduey, L. Pena, Frias, J. Baez

That's actually a depth chart that assumes some pretty aggressive promotions (like Bracho and Rocchio skipping LC), and you're still left with some really good prospects either in utility roles or playing 3B. Fermin, for one, is a top 30 in my personal lists and I'm struggling to see where he fits. Palacios was a 3rd round pick, did really well in 2018 getting all the way to LC and was hurt all of last year - where can he get at bats? Junior Sanquintin and Angel Genao were highly regarded international signings who haven't really gotten to play yet. And you can't exactly just plan on putting them in AZL/DSL... because there's also draft picks happening next year!


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 59
09/01/2020 12:21 am  

The more I stew over the Clevinger deal the more I don't like it.

How does getting Naylor help the Tribe win now?Balanced versus the innings pitched from Clevinger that they lose.

I would rather have traded a few prospects for Starling Marte than Clevinger for Naylor,the Canuck Schmuck and the Padres second tier prospects

 The other  players in the deal are fine but why deal for them now?They could have traded Clevinger for those players in the off season and it's not like it's an overwhelming package of must have talent anyway.

I hope I'm just a baseball idiot.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/01/2020 1:49 am  
Posted by: @themaven

The more I stew over the Clevinger deal the more I don't like it.

How does getting Naylor help the Tribe win now?Balanced versus the innings pitched from Clevinger that they lose.

I would rather have traded a few prospects for Starling Marte than Clevinger for Naylor,the Canuck Schmuck and the Padres second tier prospects

 The other  players in the deal are fine but why deal for them now?They could have traded Clevinger for those players in the off season and it's not like it's an overwhelming package of must have talent anyway.

I hope I'm just a baseball idiot.

I, too, would have preferred an OFer who had a better history of production.  That said, this trade is not unlike last year's Bauer trade, where the Indians traded a frontline SP and got a combination of major and minor league talent, where it was hoped that the major league portion would contribute enough to help the team make the playoffs and advance.

The major difference is that in the instant trade the Indians got more minor league talent (including possible replacements for both Lindor and Hernandez), albeit further from the majors, got a RP and backup C in lieu of a 2nd OF (Puig), and didn't take on any salary, as they weren't in a financial position to do so - for obvious reasons.

As for questioning how losing Clevinger and gaining Naylor helps, IMO you are looking too narrowly at the transaction and disregarding the Indians' existing roster depth.  Keep in mind that Plesac will replace Clevinger in the rotation, and Naylor will, on most days, likely replace some combination of Luplow and Santana.

So, the question is:  Are the Indians better with a rotation of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Carrasco, and McKenzie, a RP corp that includes Quantrill, and a starting lineup that includes Naylor OR a rotation of Bieber, Clevinger, Civale, Carrasco, and McKenzie, a RP corp without Quantrill, and a starting lineup that includes Luplow/Santana?  Now, I don't think this is a rhetorical question, and each of us may have a different answer.  But, I certainly don't think the only answer is that the Indians' major league roster is weaker as a result of the trade.

Also, keep in mind that, as with Franmil Reyes, Naylor is a 2nd yr player who has ceiling that he has yet (and may not) to attain.  So, there is room for growth in his game, possibly as early as this season, particularly as he will be able to play all of his games away from Petco Park.

Also, like it or not, the Indians survive on surplus value, so that they can minimize paying FAs and players that become expensive toward the end of team control to fill out their roster.  That is their raison d'etre.  And they added a lot of surplus value in this trade while, at the same time, hopefully improving their major league roster.  As to the latter, that remains to be seen.

 


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 187
09/01/2020 6:56 am  

I think part of it is the age factor...

Naylor is only 23 and has yet to get consistent ABs. He's a former 1st round pick that has hit well in the minors and moved quickly through the system. CA sounds like their belief in age and track record had something to do with the acquisitions.

Quantrill was the 8th overall selection from the 2016 draft class and was a projected 1st round talent. He's only 25 and could move back to the rotation. He has a solid 3 pitch mix and throws a 4th. FB 94-95, CH+, SL, and a CB that lags behind.

Hedges is what he is. Plus defense, above power, 35 bat (I usually don't go lower, lol).

Arias is only 20, I believe. There's AS potential here but he needs to continue to grow at the plate, take walks.

Miller is 23 and has appeared at double-A. He has drawn Mark Loretta comps. He's likely a UTL man at worst.

Cantillo is a 6'4, 220 lb 20yo that was very young for the 2017 draft class. He is hitting 90-94 with his change getting plus grades. Trevor Hooth has a nice piece about him at Prospects Live and on Twitter.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 187
09/01/2020 7:03 am  

Matt Waldron is a good pick up by the Padres. I think mid-RP type. Low 90's Fb t93 with CB and CH mix if I recall correctly. His best feature is his plus control. He's already 23-24, but should move quickly.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/01/2020 9:11 am  

I'm posting this link to the article by Trevor Hooth because it has quite a few GIFs of Cantillo's 3-pitch mix.  I would hope that someone with a better eye for pitch mechanics than I might give their personal views of Hooth's mechanics and what his potential might be.

https://www.prospectslive.com/scouting-reports/2020/8/28/pitcher-rewind-a-love-letter-to-joey-cantillos-changeup

Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen has commented that Cantillo's CB has a high spin rate and that the pitch might improve if he's able to some velocity to his FB.  In other words, if he starts throwing harder, it might also have the derivative effect of improving his high-spin CB, which is listed @ 2,400 rpm in the link below, which is the current list of Indians' prospects. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-in-season-prospect-list/scouting-pitching?sort=-1,1&team=cle&type=3

Also, the Cleveland organization is known to improve of velo of a number of its prospects, particularly those that are athletic and have the ability to take and implement pitching mechanic changes such as shortening the arm stroke, which can have the effect of improving both command and velocity.

  


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The Prosecutor
(@pros)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 48
09/01/2020 10:06 am  

@detdawg

If Naylor just continues to hit .278/.832 he'll be a big improvement over what we've been putting in left field. The Indians rank 29th in WAR in left field this year. 

Quantrill improves the bullpen (he has a 1.40 career ERA in relief) and Hedges is a better backup catcher than Leon. 

The wild card is whether Naylor will hit better than he did in San Diego because 1) the Prog is friendlier to left-handed hitters than Petco, and 2) he'll presumably be playing every day. He only had 36 at-bats for the Padres this year, or about one per game. 

Just stick him in left field for the rest of the season and leave him alone. 

 


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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 18
09/01/2020 10:20 am  

I fear Naylor will be terrible in the OF so he will have to move to 1B and I question his power to hold that position. 


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The Prosecutor
(@pros)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 48
09/01/2020 10:34 am  

Taking a look at Naylor's hitting profile at Fangraphs, he kind of reminds me of a left-handed Yandy Diaz. Last year in 253 AB's with the Padres his ground ball percentage was 53%, fly ball 30%, line drive 17%. This year it's about the same. Like Yandy he hits the ball on the ground a lot. 

Last year his pull percentage was 39%, center was 37%, and opposite field 24%. This year in only 37 AB's it's the same; 36/39/24. He pulls the ball a little more than Yandy, but he's basically a guy who uses the middle of the field and opposite field almost two-thirds of the time. 

So like Yandy he's a guy who looks like a big time power hitter but who sprays the ball around and doesn't pull or put it in the air that much. He hits more like a little guy in that respect. 

In Yandy's two seasons with the Tribe his ground ball percentage was 54-59% while his fly ball percentage was 18-23%, so Yandy was a more extreme ground ball hitter than Naylor. Yandy's pull percentage was 25-29% whereas Naylor is in the high 30's. 

Not that you can't be successful with that approach. This year Yandy's ground ball and oppo percentages are the highest of his career at 66% and 42%, respectively. He's hitting .307 with a wRC+ of 136. Base hits are good even if they are ground balls into right field. 

Naylor has 10 hits this year, 8 of which are singles. He sprays the ball around and generally hits ground balls and line drives, putting only 30% in the air. He's a left-handed Yandy Diaz only not as extreme. He only has 9 home runs in 291 at-bats which projects to 18 for a full season of playing every day. But I don't know how many long drives to right field were caught in Petco that would have been out at the Prog. 

My guess is his upside is a Michael Brantley type who hits around .300 with 25 home runs. Naylor has shown good plate discipline in the minors with an 11% walk rate. I'm seeing kind of a Brantley/Diaz hybrid from what he have on him so far. 

 

This post was modified 3 months ago by The Prosecutor

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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 18
09/01/2020 10:53 am  
Posted by: @pros

Taking a look at Naylor's hitting profile at Fangraphs, he kind of reminds me of a left-handed Yandy Diaz. Last year in 253 AB's with the Padres his ground ball percentage was 53%, fly ball 30%, line drive 17%. This year it's about the same. Like Yandy he hits the ball on the ground a lot. 

Last year his pull percentage was 39%, center was 37%, and opposite field 24%. This year in only 37 AB's it's the same; 36/39/24. He pulls the ball a little more than Yandy, but he's basically a guy who uses the middle of the field and opposite field almost two-thirds of the time. 

So like Yandy he's a guy who looks like a big time power hitter but who sprays the ball around and doesn't pull or put it in the air that much. He hits more like a little guy in that respect. 

In Yandy's two seasons with the Tribe his ground ball percentage was 54-59% while his fly ball percentage was 18-23%, so Yandy was a more extreme ground ball hitter than Naylor. Yandy's pull percentage was 25-29% whereas Naylor is in the high 30's. 

Not that you can't be successful with that approach. This year Yandy's ground ball and oppo percentages are the highest of his career at 66% and 42%, respectively. He's hitting .307 with a wRC+ of 136. Base hits are good even if they are ground balls into right field. 

Naylor has 10 hits this year, 8 of which are singles. He sprays the ball around and generally hits ground balls and line drives, putting only 30% in the air. He's a left-handed Yandy Diaz only not as extreme. He only has 9 home runs in 291 at-bats which projects to 18 for a full season of playing every day. But I don't know how many long drives to right field were caught in Petco that would have been out at the Prog. 

My guess is his upside is a Michael Brantley type who hits around .300 with 25 home runs. Naylor has shown good plate discipline in the minors with an 11% walk rate. I'm seeing kind of a Brantley/Diaz hybrid from what he have on him so far. 

 

That would play in the current Cleveland OF but provides little margin for error. If his HR total dips into the 15-20 range and his average to the .280 range he won't stick. And if his defense in the OF sucks, that power profile at 1B puts him on the bench. And he is not fit and at his age that is a bit concerning.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/01/2020 10:57 am  
Posted by: @pros

@detdawg

If Naylor just continues to hit .278/.832 he'll be a big improvement over what we've been putting in left field. The Indians rank 29th in WAR in left field this year. 

Quantrill improves the bullpen (he has a 1.40 career ERA in relief) and Hedges is a better backup catcher than Leon. 

The wild card is whether Naylor will hit better than he did in San Diego because 1) the Prog is friendlier to left-handed hitters than Petco, and 2) he'll presumably be playing every day. He only had 36 at-bats for the Padres this year, or about one per game. 

Just stick him in left field for the rest of the season and leave him alone. 

 

Here's the 2020 park factors for all MLB teams, including by handedness.

https://baseballmonster.com/mlbparkfactors.aspx

Petco Park HR and BA factors for LHH, compared to average, are -7% and -5%, respectively.

Progressive Field HR and BA factors, compared to average, are 0% and +1%, respectively.

______________

And here are the park factors for LF and RF for all of the parks.  I don't know how current this data is.

https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors

HR and wOBA factors for Petco Park's RF are 0.92 and 0.99, respectively.

HR and wOBA factors for Progressive Field's RF are 1.07 and 1.04, respectively.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/01/2020 11:36 am  
Posted by: @calbuckeyerob
Posted by: @pros

Taking a look at Naylor's hitting profile at Fangraphs, he kind of reminds me of a left-handed Yandy Diaz. Last year in 253 AB's with the Padres his ground ball percentage was 53%, fly ball 30%, line drive 17%. This year it's about the same. Like Yandy he hits the ball on the ground a lot. 

Last year his pull percentage was 39%, center was 37%, and opposite field 24%. This year in only 37 AB's it's the same; 36/39/24. He pulls the ball a little more than Yandy, but he's basically a guy who uses the middle of the field and opposite field almost two-thirds of the time. 

So like Yandy he's a guy who looks like a big time power hitter but who sprays the ball around and doesn't pull or put it in the air that much. He hits more like a little guy in that respect. 

In Yandy's two seasons with the Tribe his ground ball percentage was 54-59% while his fly ball percentage was 18-23%, so Yandy was a more extreme ground ball hitter than Naylor. Yandy's pull percentage was 25-29% whereas Naylor is in the high 30's. 

Not that you can't be successful with that approach. This year Yandy's ground ball and oppo percentages are the highest of his career at 66% and 42%, respectively. He's hitting .307 with a wRC+ of 136. Base hits are good even if they are ground balls into right field. 

Naylor has 10 hits this year, 8 of which are singles. He sprays the ball around and generally hits ground balls and line drives, putting only 30% in the air. He's a left-handed Yandy Diaz only not as extreme. He only has 9 home runs in 291 at-bats which projects to 18 for a full season of playing every day. But I don't know how many long drives to right field were caught in Petco that would have been out at the Prog. 

My guess is his upside is a Michael Brantley type who hits around .300 with 25 home runs. Naylor has shown good plate discipline in the minors with an 11% walk rate. I'm seeing kind of a Brantley/Diaz hybrid from what he have on him so far. 

 

That would play in the current Cleveland OF but provides little margin for error. If his HR total dips into the 15-20 range and his average to the .280 range he won't stick. And if his defense in the OF sucks, that power profile at 1B puts him on the bench. And he is not fit and at his age that is a bit concerning.

I don't know how accurate your characterization of Naylor's defense is.  As I noted in a previous post, he dropped 30 lbs in the offseason in order to help address the defensive deficiencies you refer to.  I don't know to what extent he has achieved his goal, but I would think that he's probably a bit more athletic and fleet of foot than he was last year.  We'll have to see.  And remember, he'll be replacing Santana in many situations, and Santana certainly isn't the gold standard on OF defense.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 59
09/01/2020 12:59 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @themaven

The more I stew over the Clevinger deal the more I don't like it.

How does getting Naylor help the Tribe win now?Balanced versus the innings pitched from Clevinger that they lose.

I would rather have traded a few prospects for Starling Marte than Clevinger for Naylor,the Canuck Schmuck and the Padres second tier prospects

 The other  players in the deal are fine but why deal for them now?They could have traded Clevinger for those players in the off season and it's not like it's an overwhelming package of must have talent anyway.

I hope I'm just a baseball idiot.

I, too, would have preferred an OFer who had a better history of production.  That said, this trade is not unlike last year's Bauer trade, where the Indians traded a frontline SP and got a combination of major and minor league talent, where it was hoped that the major league portion would contribute enough to help the team make the playoffs and advance.

The major difference is that in the instant trade the Indians got more minor league talent (including possible replacements for both Lindor and Hernandez), albeit further from the majors, got a RP and backup C in lieu of a 2nd OF (Puig), and didn't take on any salary, as they weren't in a financial position to do so - for obvious reasons.

As for questioning how losing Clevinger and gaining Naylor helps, IMO you are looking too narrowly at the transaction and disregarding the Indians' existing roster depth.  Keep in mind that Plesac will replace Clevinger in the rotation, and Naylor will, on most days, likely replace some combination of Luplow and Santana.

So, the question is:  Are the Indians better with a rotation of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Carrasco, and McKenzie, a RP corp that includes Quantrill, and a starting lineup that includes Naylor OR a rotation of Bieber, Clevinger, Civale, Carrasco, and McKenzie, a RP corp without Quantrill, and a starting lineup that includes Luplow/Santana?  Now, I don't think this is a rhetorical question, and each of us may have a different answer.  But, I certainly don't think the only answer is that the Indians' major league roster is weaker as a result of the trade.

Also, keep in mind that, as with Franmil Reyes, Naylor is a 2nd yr player who has ceiling that he has yet (and may not) to attain.  So, there is room for growth in his game, possibly as early as this season, particularly as he will be able to play all of his games away from Petco Park.

Also, like it or not, the Indians survive on surplus value, so that they can minimize paying FAs and players that become expensive toward the end of team control to fill out their roster.  That is their raison d'etre.  And they added a lot of surplus value in this trade while, at the same time, hopefully improving their major league roster.  As to the latter, that remains to be seen.

 

This trade is only superficially similar to the Bauer trade.

First of all Bauer had only one year of control plus left,second Clevinger is a better pitcher(arguably) than Bauer and third and most importantly, Reyes was in the process of having a 37 home run season when he was dealt, thus being an established major league hitter.

Quantrill helps the bullpen a bit, Hedges and Leon are a wash.The sticking point is Naylor.I don't see a hitter that is much better than the guys he'll be replacing, if at all.

Plesac isn't replacing Clevinger in the rotation McKenzie is.Plesac was already in the rotation before Protocolgate.McKenzie has shown well, but he is a raw rookie and the drop off from a healthy Clevinger to McKenzie(or Allen,Quantrill etc.) is much greater than the incremental gain the offense may receive from Naylor imho.

To answer your question: No the Indians aren't better with the current starting five and Naylor ,Quantrill and Hedges than they were previously.

However the real question is:

Would they be better with Clevinger and Starling Marte and  minus a few prospects versus what they have now?Then using Clevinger to reload the farm system in the off season.

Yes the prospects are better than they received in the Bauer deal,but there was no crying need for prospects,especially now.They could have dealt Clevinger in the off season for this collection of talent easily.

I'm well aware of what the Indians need to do to stay competitive,but these walk the tightrope trades only work if you select the right major league talent.They did with Reyes,I don't believe they did with Naylor.

 

Of course all this is based on the presumption that Clevinger is healthy and mentally sound.The tight lipped Indians front office knows more about this than we do and that just may be the biggest factor here.

I hope I'm wrong about Naylor,I would gladly eat crow if he develops into a star.Same goes for turning Quantrill into another Kluber and Arias replacing Lindor with a flourish.

I just think they hurt themselves competitively this season,for no logical reason.

 


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/01/2020 5:16 pm  
Posted by: @themaven
Posted by: @detdawg
Posted by: @themaven

The more I stew over the Clevinger deal the more I don't like it.

How does getting Naylor help the Tribe win now?Balanced versus the innings pitched from Clevinger that they lose.

I would rather have traded a few prospects for Starling Marte than Clevinger for Naylor,the Canuck Schmuck and the Padres second tier prospects

 The other  players in the deal are fine but why deal for them now?They could have traded Clevinger for those players in the off season and it's not like it's an overwhelming package of must have talent anyway.

I hope I'm just a baseball idiot.

I, too, would have preferred an OFer who had a better history of production.  That said, this trade is not unlike last year's Bauer trade, where the Indians traded a frontline SP and got a combination of major and minor league talent, where it was hoped that the major league portion would contribute enough to help the team make the playoffs and advance.

The major difference is that in the instant trade the Indians got more minor league talent (including possible replacements for both Lindor and Hernandez), albeit further from the majors, got a RP and backup C in lieu of a 2nd OF (Puig), and didn't take on any salary, as they weren't in a financial position to do so - for obvious reasons.

As for questioning how losing Clevinger and gaining Naylor helps, IMO you are looking too narrowly at the transaction and disregarding the Indians' existing roster depth.  Keep in mind that Plesac will replace Clevinger in the rotation, and Naylor will, on most days, likely replace some combination of Luplow and Santana.

So, the question is:  Are the Indians better with a rotation of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Carrasco, and McKenzie, a RP corp that includes Quantrill, and a starting lineup that includes Naylor OR a rotation of Bieber, Clevinger, Civale, Carrasco, and McKenzie, a RP corp without Quantrill, and a starting lineup that includes Luplow/Santana?  Now, I don't think this is a rhetorical question, and each of us may have a different answer.  But, I certainly don't think the only answer is that the Indians' major league roster is weaker as a result of the trade.

Also, keep in mind that, as with Franmil Reyes, Naylor is a 2nd yr player who has ceiling that he has yet (and may not) to attain.  So, there is room for growth in his game, possibly as early as this season, particularly as he will be able to play all of his games away from Petco Park.

Also, like it or not, the Indians survive on surplus value, so that they can minimize paying FAs and players that become expensive toward the end of team control to fill out their roster.  That is their raison d'etre.  And they added a lot of surplus value in this trade while, at the same time, hopefully improving their major league roster.  As to the latter, that remains to be seen.

 

This trade is only superficially similar to the Bauer trade.

First of all Bauer had only one year of control plus left,second Clevinger is a better pitcher(arguably) than Bauer and third and most importantly, Reyes was in the process of having a 37 home run season when he was dealt, thus being an established major league hitter.

Quantrill helps the bullpen a bit, Hedges and Leon are a wash.The sticking point is Naylor.I don't see a hitter that is much better than the guys he'll be replacing, if at all.

Plesac isn't replacing Clevinger in the rotation McKenzie is.Plesac was already in the rotation before Protocolgate.McKenzie has shown well, but he is a raw rookie and the drop off from a healthy Clevinger to McKenzie(or Allen,Quantrill etc.) is much greater than the incremental gain the offense may receive from Naylor imho.

To answer your question: No the Indians aren't better with the current starting five and Naylor ,Quantrill and Hedges than they were previously.

However the real question is:

Would they be better with Clevinger and Starling Marte and  minus a few prospects versus what they have now?Then using Clevinger to reload the farm system in the off season.

Yes the prospects are better than they received in the Bauer deal,but there was no crying need for prospects,especially now.They could have dealt Clevinger in the off season for this collection of talent easily.

I'm well aware of what the Indians need to do to stay competitive,but these walk the tightrope trades only work if you select the right major league talent.They did with Reyes,I don't believe they did with Naylor.

 

Of course all this is based on the presumption that Clevinger is healthy and mentally sound.The tight lipped Indians front office knows more about this than we do and that just may be the biggest factor here.

I hope I'm wrong about Naylor,I would gladly eat crow if he develops into a star.Same goes for turning Quantrill into another Kluber and Arias replacing Lindor with a flourish.

I just think they hurt themselves competitively this season,for no logical reason.

 

I'm not going to go point-by-point.  I'll just raise 2 issues.

One, you assert that McKenzie is replacing Clevinger.  It appears that you're trying to ignore the reality of the fact that McKenzie is in the rotation, and Plesac was not at the time of the trade.  If Clevinger wasn't traded, we have no idea how long Plesac would have remained at the Alternate Site.  It likely would have depended on McKenzie's success in future starts.  Neither you nor I know how he's going to perform.  And there's fewer than 30 games remaining in the season.

I think you and I just disagree on Naylor.  I'll just throw out a few facts. 

Domingo Santana's wRC+ is 63 and his OPS is .583.  Luplow's wRC+ is 27 and his OPS is .446.  I'm a fan of Luplow, and I think he's better than his results, but there's only so long the team can wait for him to turn his game around in this shortened season. 

In games away from offense-sapping Petco Park, Naylor's career ('19 and '20) wRC+ is 109 and his OPS is .802.  And as an aside, Naylor's stats are a whole lot better when looking solely at 2020, but the sample size is too small to yield any legitimate conclusions. I've also posted park factors for the Indians previously, and they are a bit above average offensively.  So, based on these stats - and I think it's reasonable to use Naylor's away stats for this purpose - Naylor appears to be a significant upgrade.  And that ignores the fact that Naylor is in just his sophomore year and improvement in his game wouldn't be surprising, particularly given his ceiling and the fact that he has yet to show the power he was projected to have.

To accept your conclusions you have to buy into the view that Naylor won't provide any improvement in the Indians' offense.  The above comparative stats suggest that the opposite can be expected.  Whether that, in fact happens, remains to be seen because they play the game between the lines and not on stat sheets.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 187
09/01/2020 5:24 pm  
Posted by: @pros

Taking a look at Naylor's hitting profile at Fangraphs, he kind of reminds me of a left-handed Yandy Diaz. Last year in 253 AB's with the Padres his ground ball percentage was 53%, fly ball 30%, line drive 17%. This year it's about the same. Like Yandy he hits the ball on the ground a lot. 

Last year his pull percentage was 39%, center was 37%, and opposite field 24%. This year in only 37 AB's it's the same; 36/39/24. He pulls the ball a little more than Yandy, but he's basically a guy who uses the middle of the field and opposite field almost two-thirds of the time. 

So like Yandy he's a guy who looks like a big time power hitter but who sprays the ball around and doesn't pull or put it in the air that much. He hits more like a little guy in that respect. 

In Yandy's two seasons with the Tribe his ground ball percentage was 54-59% while his fly ball percentage was 18-23%, so Yandy was a more extreme ground ball hitter than Naylor. Yandy's pull percentage was 25-29% whereas Naylor is in the high 30's. 

Not that you can't be successful with that approach. This year Yandy's ground ball and oppo percentages are the highest of his career at 66% and 42%, respectively. He's hitting .307 with a wRC+ of 136. Base hits are good even if they are ground balls into right field. 

Naylor has 10 hits this year, 8 of which are singles. He sprays the ball around and generally hits ground balls and line drives, putting only 30% in the air. He's a left-handed Yandy Diaz only not as extreme. He only has 9 home runs in 291 at-bats which projects to 18 for a full season of playing every day. But I don't know how many long drives to right field were caught in Petco that would have been out at the Prog. 

My guess is his upside is a Michael Brantley type who hits around .300 with 25 home runs. Naylor has shown good plate discipline in the minors with an 11% walk rate. I'm seeing kind of a Brantley/Diaz hybrid from what he have on him so far. 

 

I like the Brantley comp.

I look at Naylor as a .265-.275 30+dbls 20-25 hr type at maturity. That's a solid player.

I like that he is only 23 too. Plenty of career and some development ahead.


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