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Roster Musings  

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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 18
09/01/2020 6:04 pm  

In the short term, Naylor is likely to be better than the Luplow/Santana performance.  But they were so bad that if they continued to play they would likely have been better just because it is near impossible to perform that badly for an extended period of time. But do you expect Naylor to be a 3-4 year everyday guy or just that he is better right now? A year from now at the deadline I expect we will be looking to replace him with a power bat since he plays a defensive position that requires power in the modern game. I think they settled for this trade because this isn't close to meeting the alleged "ridiculous" demands we were hearing about.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 187
09/01/2020 6:12 pm  

I think the off field stuff w/ his ex, the protocol violation (lack of maturity?), age, injuries, rising price, and prospective return lead to the decision to deal Clev

All those reasons are why a team doesn't deal a Luis Campusano or CJ Abrams to the Tribe


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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 18
09/01/2020 8:50 pm  
Posted by: @willhoo99

I think the off field stuff w/ his ex, the protocol violation (lack of maturity?), age, injuries, rising price, and prospective return lead to the decision to deal Clev

All those reasons are why a team doesn't deal a Luis Campusano or CJ Abrams to the Tribe

Do you think they get any less waiting until the offseason to trade him?  They saved no appreciable money doing it now. 


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/01/2020 9:16 pm  
Posted by: @calbuckeyerob

In the short term, Naylor is likely to be better than the Luplow/Santana performance.  But they were so bad that if they continued to play they would likely have been better just because it is near impossible to perform that badly for an extended period of time. But do you expect Naylor to be a 3-4 year everyday guy or just that he is better right now? A year from now at the deadline I expect we will be looking to replace him with a power bat since he plays a defensive position that requires power in the modern game. I think they settled for this trade because this isn't close to meeting the alleged "ridiculous" demands we were hearing about.

I do expect Naylor to be with the team for 3-4 yrs, maybe more if he plays well and is agreeable to an extension.  The position he plays may or may not be LF.  I suspect that the Indians will be looking for a 1B in the offseason, as '21 is a club option year for Santana at a cost of $17.5MM.  I don't see the Indians paying that given their present economic circumstances, particularly if Santana doesn't rediscover his power in the last half of the season and playoffs.  Assuming Naylor is able to unlock his power, which might be facilitated by a modest increase in launch angle, than he would be a good fit for that position as well.  And I don't see any prospects in the Indians' farm system that are a good fit for 1B.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 59
09/01/2020 9:29 pm  

Monday night's game Keller pitched and pitched very well with an expanding patch of pine tar/dirt on his right hip.

Tonight Hernandez comes in and is pitching well with a patch of pine tar/dirt on his right hip.

Where are the umpires?Where is Alomar to goad the umpires.Why haven't the announcers noticed it?

This is pretty blatant in my opinion.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/01/2020 9:51 pm  

One thing that I keep meaning to bring up, and haven't, in part due to the recent activity at the trade deadline is the health status of the team.  IIRC, one of the Indians' announcers said the other day that the Indians were the only team in baseball that didn't have a player on the IR - or on the Covid-19 list for that matter.  The only exception that I know of is Lenny Torres, who is at the Alternate Site and is listed as day-to-day going back to February 11th.  A Cleveland.com/tribe article also noted that he was shut down on March 14th due to coronavirus.  My guess is that that data on Torres isn't current.

The general health of the players on the major league roster is a testament to the team's medical and performance staff, as well as the Indians' pitchers, particularly its starting rotation, which maintained their arm conditioning during the Covid-related shutdown, and therefore didn't have to ramp up conditioning during the short ST2 that other pitchers had to undergo.  The result was that this team was able to avoid some of the stress-related arm injuries that the rest of the league experienced, and is still experiencing.


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The Prosecutor
(@pros)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 48
09/02/2020 8:38 am  

@detdawg

Considering how many pitching injuries there have been around the league it's amazing the Indians have been injury free. I think that's a tremendous accomplishment by their coaching staff in terms of managing workload, training techniques, etc. 


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The Prosecutor
(@pros)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 48
09/02/2020 8:50 am  

@detdawg

In games away from offense-sapping Petco Park, Naylor's career ('19 and '20) wRC+ is 109 and his OPS is .802.

You made a really important point here. The guy is only 23, he's hit .300 in his minor league career, and so far in his short major league career he's an above average hitter away from Petco. 

I would make the point, however, that Petco probably didn't depress his numbers very much. Looking at his hitting profile he only puts the ball in the air 30% of the time and only pulls the ball 37-39% of the time. He is mostly a gap-to-gap ground ball and line drive hitter. He puts the ball on the ground 50-53% of the time. 

So I'm not sure how many long fly balls to deep right or right-center that would have been home runs in most parks were long outs for Naylor in Petco. He just doesn't pull very many balls in the air. Two-thirds of his batted balls are either to center or left field. While it's true the Prog is a batter park for lefties I don't think it will make all that much difference when most of the balls are hit on the ground or line drives to center and left. 

What will help him more, IMO, is playing every day and accumulating hundreds of at-bats against major league pitchers. Until now he's been playing sporadically and we've seen how that worked for Zimmer, Luplow, Domingo, Allen, and Johnson this year. Hitting seventh, playing every day, and knowing the job is his will allow him to relax and play his game with no pressure to perform every time he gets in the lineup and that will bring out his best in time.

With regard to questions about his conditioning, just watch how he scored from first base on a double into the right field corner last night, beating the throw easily. He's much faster than I expected. 

 

This post was modified 3 months ago by The Prosecutor

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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 59
09/02/2020 9:03 am  
Posted by: @pros

@detdawg

Considering how many pitching injuries there have been around the league it's amazing the Indians have been injury free. I think that's a tremendous accomplishment by their coaching staff in terms of managing workload, training techniques, etc. 

It's not just this season either, it's been a noticeable trend for quite some time.

Even when Indians pitchers do go down with injuries they usually aren't arm related.The last one I can think of was when they shut Civale down last season because of a sore shoulder,yet he came back and pitched fine.

Danny Salazar is the only major loss of talent due to arm injury(from pitching) in the last 4-5 seasons.

Whatever they are doing to minimize the ailments to pitchers is certainly working.

 


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/02/2020 10:22 am  
Posted by: @pros

@detdawg

In games away from offense-sapping Petco Park, Naylor's career ('19 and '20) wRC+ is 109 and his OPS is .802.

You made a really important point here. The guy is only 23, he's hit .300 in his minor league career, and so far in his short major league career he's an above average hitter away from Petco. 

I would make the point, however, that Petco probably didn't depress his numbers very much. Looking at his hitting profile he only puts the ball in the air 30% of the time and only pulls the ball 37-39% of the time. He is mostly a gap-to-gap ground ball and line drive hitter. He puts the ball on the ground 50-53% of the time. 

So I'm not sure how many long fly balls to deep right or right-center that would have been home runs in most parks were long outs for Naylor in Petco. He just doesn't pull very many balls in the air. Two-thirds of his batted balls are either to center or left field. While it's true the Prog is a batter park for lefties I don't think it will make all that much difference when most of the balls are hit on the ground or line drives to center and left. 

What will help him more, IMO, is playing every day and accumulating hundreds of at-bats against major league pitchers. Until now he's been playing sporadically and we've seen how that worked for Zimmer, Luplow, Domingo, Allen, and Johnson this year. Hitting seventh, playing every day, and knowing the job is his will allow him to relax and play his game with no pressure to perform every time he gets in the lineup and that will bring out his best in time.

With regard to questions about his conditioning, just watch how he scored from first base on a double into the right field corner last night, beating the throw easily. He's much faster than I expected. 

 

Naylor's career stats.

home - OPS .616, wRC+ 65

away - OPS .801, wRC+ 110


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Nubballguy
(@nubballguy)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 4
09/02/2020 1:20 pm  

@pros I know it’s only one game but Naylor’s trip around the bases showed more speed and athleticism than I was expecting. Also, it seemed like he was getting some loft on the ball in his productive night of at-bats. 

I didn’t watch the game but can anyone give any remarks on how he fielded the position? Hoping he surprises to the upside defensively. 


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/02/2020 4:42 pm  

One thing I wondered about regarding the Indians trade with SD was whether there was any data/information sharing between the 2 teams.  The Indians were one of the teams that entered into a data sharing agreement regarding players at each of their Alternate Sites.  But, SD did not enter into that agreement.  So, the question I've asked myself is how much current information did the Indians have about Arias, Cantillo, and Miller.  I found the answer in an article by Zack Meisel of The Athletic

https://theathletic.com/2035224/2020/09/01/meisel-10-final-thoughts-on-the-mike-clevinger-trade-and-the-indians-future/?source=dailyemail

He said the Indians and Padres shared information about players at their respective Alternate Sites.  So, that means that if Cantillo added a tick or two to his FB over the offseason, then the Indians should already know that.  And if Arias and/or Miller have achieved any growth in their games since they last played in minor league games, then the Indians should know about that too, at least in theory.

 

 


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GSon
 GSon
(@gson)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 43
09/02/2020 4:42 pm  

@calbuckeyerob

Interesting question.. There is no debating many/most of the teams are seeing a significant reduction in revenues.. For some teams, it's devastating..for others, it's a mild inconvenience.. After the season.. the ownership will be in a full austerity mode... Guys that are super players.. will get less or perhaps less and shorter contracts..  Second tier guys are going to be squeezed.. it will be a sellers market.. Selling when others are buying is best for the seller.. After this season..the sellers will out number the buyers by about 22 to 8.. Inevitably (after this long winded comment), the Indians would be getting less in a sellers market.. especially considering the asset the Indians are selling.. has some personality flaws and an injury history.. Trading Clevinger now was the absolute best time.. considering the Starting Pitcher depth and short season.. it made sense.. Now, let's see if the guys who have made so many good trades.. made another..


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 211
09/02/2020 5:13 pm  
Posted by: @gson

@calbuckeyerob

Interesting question.. There is no debating many/most of the teams are seeing a significant reduction in revenues.. For some teams, it's devastating..for others, it's a mild inconvenience.. After the season.. the ownership will be in a full austerity mode... Guys that are super players.. will get less or perhaps less and shorter contracts..  Second tier guys are going to be squeezed.. it will be a sellers market.. Selling when others are buying is best for the seller.. After this season..the sellers will out number the buyers by about 22 to 8.. Inevitably (after this long winded comment), the Indians would be getting less in a sellers market.. especially considering the asset the Indians are selling.. has some personality flaws and an injury history.. Trading Clevinger now was the absolute best time.. considering the Starting Pitcher depth and short season.. it made sense.. Now, let's see if the guys who have made so many good trades.. made another..

I agree with you.  There should be quite a few teams that will be trying to unload contracts of players they can no longer afford, or team options that will be declined (like the Indians' team option on Carlos Santana), that should result in a glut of available talent and a down FA market.


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GSon
 GSon
(@gson)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 43
09/03/2020 8:14 am  

@detdawg

 

W/R to Carlos Santana and his club controlled option... the above mention austerity include.. Carlos has three issues in play:

1. He's old.. age 34 now, and will be playing his year 35 season.. 

2. He's expensive.. One dollar in seven of the Indians ML payroll would be going to him..

3. He's not playing nearly as well as he did in 2019..

He loves being in Cleveland.. Cleveland's fans and organization love him.. He wants to be here... & not the Francisco Lindor no win statement of wanting to be here.. (of course Lindor says he wants to be in Cleveland.. saying anything else makes him a pariah..or worse, if there is anything worse than that).. It would not be a surprise to see the Indians decline Carlos' option with a wink and a nod telling him that they would consider a match with who ever offers him a deal.. or the Indians decline the option & do not offer the QO.. while later offering a two year deal worth more than the one year option: 2 years $ 18 MM. 

Of course.. the Indians may not do anything other than the declines and wish Carlos a well meaning & fond adieau..

This post was modified 3 months ago by GSon

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