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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 187
09/03/2020 8:39 am  

I would expect them to decline the option and sign him to a 2 yr deal. Perhaps, they'll add some escalators in the deal to offer some additional cash and protect themselves too.

2 yrs / $22-24M with incentives is what I'd expect.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 211
09/03/2020 9:15 am  

@willhoo99

I think Carlos is going to have to pick up his game to get that kind of deal, particularly given his age.  IMO, the Indians are not in a financial position to paying someone 10 figures unless they have reasonable expectations that he will be a significant contributor.  I don't know what to think of Santana right now.  He still has his elite strike zone awareness, but per Statcast his HardHit % has declined 9.8% from last year, and his exit velocity has dropped from 91.8 mph to 88.8 mph.  That suggests he may be at the beginning of an age-related physical decline.  On the other hand, it might be a statistical aberration that would adjust to the mean in a regular-length season.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 211
09/03/2020 10:11 am  

Triston's velo was down yet again, to 92.7 mph. from 94.5 in his debut and 93.3 in his 2nd start.  I was expecting a bit of a decline in his 2nd game, but 1.2 mph was a surprise.  And his drop of another 0.6 mph is a bit concerning.  His 2nd game was on 6 games rest.  His game last night was on 5 days rest.  His next game will be on 6 days rest, assuming the Indians maintain their current 5-man rotation.  Hopefully, the extra day will get his velo back into the 93s.  If it doesn't, then we may have to adjust out thinking as to what kind of velo he has in a major league rotation, and maybe the Indians might want to consider finding him some extra rest when feasible.

In the 94s, his FB has more swing-and-miss than it does in the 92s, particularly up in the zone.  What helped him last night was improved command and surprisingly good location of the breaking pitches.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 187
09/03/2020 10:19 am  
Posted by: @detdawg

Triston's velo was down yet again, to 92.7 mph. from 94.5 in his debut and 93.3 in his 2nd start.  I was expecting a bit of a decline in his 2nd game, but 1.2 mph was a surprise.  And his drop of another 0.6 mph is a bit concerning.  His 2nd game was on 6 games rest.  His game last night was on 5 days rest.  His next game will be on 6 days rest, assuming the Indians maintain their current 5-man rotation.  Hopefully, the extra day will get his velo back into the 93s.  If it doesn't, then we may have to adjust out thinking as to what kind of velo he has in a major league rotation, and maybe the Indians might want to consider finding him some extra rest when feasible.

In the 94s, his FB has more swing-and-miss than it does in the 92s, particularly up in the zone.  What helped him last night was improved command and surprisingly good location of the breaking pitches.

Listening and watching the game last night they discussed a few tweaks to get him hot before the start of the game. Last night they had him come in from the pen. Something to monitor going forward.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 51
09/03/2020 10:28 am  
Posted by: @gson

@calbuckeyerob

Interesting question.. There is no debating many/most of the teams are seeing a significant reduction in revenues.. For some teams, it's devastating..for others, it's a mild inconvenience.. After the season.. the ownership will be in a full austerity mode... Guys that are super players.. will get less or perhaps less and shorter contracts..  Second tier guys are going to be squeezed.. it will be a sellers market.. Selling when others are buying is best for the seller.. After this season..the sellers will out number the buyers by about 22 to 8.. Inevitably (after this long winded comment), the Indians would be getting less in a sellers market.. especially considering the asset the Indians are selling.. has some personality flaws and an injury history.. Trading Clevinger now was the absolute best time.. considering the Starting Pitcher depth and short season.. it made sense.. Now, let's see if the guys who have made so many good trades.. made another..

I don't agree with this at all.

 2021's free agent group of starting pitchers isn't particularly strong with Bauer,Paxton,Minor Stroman and Arrieta arguably being in Clevingers class of pitcher and all would be more expensive even at discount rates.The only other starter in Clevingers talent group shopped this season was Lance Lynn so this is a a small group of a much desired commodity and would be separate from the free agent bargain shopping that will go on this off season.

I agree with the idea that this will be a buyers market this off season with so many teams cutting salary after losing game revenues this season and the uncertainty of game revenues next season,making it able for the big money clubs to rake in bargains.

I even advanced this idea in a Fangraphs post several days ago.

This was evidently a factor in the Tribe dropping out on Starling Marte as his option turned him into a rental player and will result in Santana and Hand not being retained.Along with no Cesar Hernandez type signings by the Tribe either.

But as it pertains to a rare commodity like a top 20 starting pitcher with two years of cheap(less than 25 million total) control,I don't believe that it would negatively affect his market value,especially considering the market would involve more teams and the circus that is the winter meetings to drive up his price.Factor in a lost year of development for prospects making them more favorable trade bait and you have even more of a reason to wait.

As to to whether or not now was the best time to trade him,only time will tell.

 


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 211
09/03/2020 10:33 am  

One other thing about Santana and an extension.  As has been discussed, this offseason is likely going to be a buyer's market with financially-distressed teams looking to unload expensive contracts and low- and mid-level FAs taking less, maybe a lot less, than they expected.  The Indians should be looking to replace expensive placeholders with cheaper players, preferably under team control, and using the extreme depth of their farm system to accomplish this, as necessary.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 51
09/03/2020 10:50 am  
Posted by: @detdawg

Triston's velo was down yet again, to 92.7 mph. from 94.5 in his debut and 93.3 in his 2nd start.  I was expecting a bit of a decline in his 2nd game, but 1.2 mph was a surprise.  And his drop of another 0.6 mph is a bit concerning.  His 2nd game was on 6 games rest.  His game last night was on 5 days rest.  His next game will be on 6 days rest, assuming the Indians maintain their current 5-man rotation.  Hopefully, the extra day will get his velo back into the 93s.  If it doesn't, then we may have to adjust out thinking as to what kind of velo he has in a major league rotation, and maybe the Indians might want to consider finding him some extra rest when feasible.

In the 94s, his FB has more swing-and-miss than it does in the 92s, particularly up in the zone.  What helped him last night was improved command and surprisingly good location of the breaking pitches.

With Statcast numbers now deemed reliable and consistent,the days of the "slow or fast" radar gun are over so the velocity drop is troubling.

McKenzie's lack of stature plays into this as well,as does his injury history.

That being said, he still has nice late movement on his fastball and his breaking pitches really improved over the course of his start.He was throwing free and easy as well.

 

 


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 187
09/03/2020 12:14 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg

One other thing about Santana and an extension.  As has been discussed, this offseason is likely going to be a buyer's market with financially-distressed teams looking to unload expensive contracts and low- and mid-level FAs taking less, maybe a lot less, than they expected.  The Indians should be looking to replace expensive placeholders with cheaper players, preferably under team control, and using the extreme depth of their farm system to accomplish this, as necessary.

Excellent point.

So perhaps, Santana would do well to land half of that amount.

I think the Interest in Joey Gallo is/was real, and he could be an offseason target. That would mean moving Naylor to first base.

Then there is Lindor. What to do there?

Deal him in hopes of getting a Verdugo, Wong, Downs return?

Let him walk in FA?

That could be intriguing bc of the on-field value and the comp pick. Not just getting that pick but consider that they would have a 1st round pick and would be scheduled to have a competitive balance round A selection too in the same draft. With the volume of players that went to school, it could be a very deep draft. Three first-round picks could be a massive boost to the farm bc of the excess and overall pool that could be used to spread across several selections.

I would prefer a contract extension, but I don't think it will happen. My next preference is to deal Lindor. 

Talking it out, it seems likely players like Santana and Hand will be gone. Lindor is a real possibility too.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 51
09/03/2020 2:52 pm  

@willhoo99

Add Roberto Perez to those two as well.Not picking up his option will save five million off the payroll.Hedges will probably cost a similar number in arb3,but will be cheaper in arb4 than the seven million option on Perez in 2022


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 187
09/03/2020 3:01 pm  
Posted by: @themaven

@willhoo99

Add Roberto Perez to those two as well.Not picking up his option will save five million off the payroll.Hedges will probably cost a similar number in arb3,but will be cheaper in arb4 than the seven million option on Perez in 2022

I think they will pick it up. But after adding Hedges, I think they've created another viable option that is younger and cheaper without losing the defense. I won't be shocked if he is dealt this offseason, but I believed that before they acquired Hedges.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 211
09/03/2020 4:27 pm  

@willhoo99

I think I agree about Perez.  He's in a different category.  I don't think the Indians can easily replace his defense and game calling.  It's noticeable when another C calls the pitches, allows wild pitches on breaking balls that pitchers bury into the dirt, and isn't as successful against the running game.  And he also provides decent offense at the bottom of the order.  But, the Indians need to give Perez's shoulder a clean bill of health.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 187
09/03/2020 5:23 pm  

I think change is coming, but not that they are going to force it. If they move Lindor move on from Santana and Hand they have created a lot of financial mobility. That said, Perez will be 32 this winter and while his price is reasonable they could go either way...I think he stays another yr


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 51
09/04/2020 12:03 am  

I did some number crunching on the estimated 2021 payroll.(Cot's Baseball Contracts)

Guaranteed money: 2 players 21.4 million

Arbitration awards:  8 players 44.5 million(estimated)Naquin,Zimmer Deshields,Lindor,Reyes,Hedges,Wittgren,Maton

Before options: 10 players 65.9 million

Minimum salaries: 16 players 9.6 million(600,000 per slot)

Total no options picked up: 26 players 77.45 million(includes 1.95m in buyouts)

 

Options:

C Santana 17.5 million(.5m buyout)

Hand 10 million (1m)

R. Perez 5.5(.45)

 

If the payroll goal for the 26 man roster next season is 75-80 million, as I think it is,there is not a lot of wiggle room.

Lindor(24 million est.) will be nearly one third of the payroll alone.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 51
09/04/2020 11:03 am  

Interesting reading.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/padres-trade-rumors-clevinger-indians-nola-mariners-luis-campusano.html

Apparently Hedges and Miller tipped the scales for the deal.


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BZRD
 BZRD
(@bzrd)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 11
09/05/2020 9:58 am  

Re: Carlos Santana, he is a tremendous athlete but has the lowest baseball IQ of any player I have ever seen.  When he has time to think, he always thinks wrong.  When he reacts, he is great.  Last year was a banner year.  He shortened his swing and just tried to drive the ball.  He has had spurts of this throughout his career, but he ALWAYS backslides to that super loooooong swing that result to him grounding out to the heart of the shift usually to medium right field.  He has a walk first hit only if I have to mentality which is not good for a cleanup hitter.  You don't drive in many runs with a walk.  He has the potential to be really good but his brain won't let him.


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