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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 207
09/05/2020 3:54 pm  

A few comments/observations - 

Hitters have started teeing off on Karinchak's FB.  It started a few games ago.  I was going to comment on it one or two appearances ago, but the results seems to have continued unabated.  Initially, I thought one of two things.  One, that he's telegraphing the pitch.  Or two, hitters are only looking for his FB (because they can't hit his CB), and looking for it up in the zone.  But, last night, Karinchak varied the location of the pitch, and he still wasn't fooling hitters.  The velocity was a bit off, but I don't think enough to matter.  So, I think one cause for his surprisingly poor results recently might be that hitters know what's coming.

McKenzie's FB had an average spin rpm of 2,432 in his debut.  In his 3rd game, when his FB averaged 92.7 mph, down from 94.5 mph, his spin was 2,313.

These are Lindor's FB percentages from 2015 to present - 

2015 - 28.7%

2016 - 28.4%

2017 - 42.4%

2018 - 39.6%

2019 - 36.3%

2020 - 32.0%

Naquin has been hitting well and is largely responsible for the improved production in the middle of the lineup.  That said, I wish he would draw more walks.  His BB% is a ridiculously low 1.4%.  It was 4.8% last year and 3.3% in '18.  So I didn't think it could get worse, but it has.  He needs a high BA to maintain an acceptable OBP, which he's achieving so far.  He doubled his launch angle in '19 from '18, and he's maintained that this year, although it's still a relatively low (by today's standards) 33.3%.  And according to Statcast, his HardHit% has increased by 5.7%.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 207
09/05/2020 4:13 pm  

One other possibility regarding Karinchak, which I haven't confirmed, is that his spin rate may be off, and he doesn't have the "rise" on his FB that is his norm.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 207
09/06/2020 4:18 am  

I misspoke about one of Naquin's stats's.  When I said that his launch angle was relatively low by today's standards, I was referring to his FB%.  Naquin's FB% is 33.3% this year, down from 35.9% last year and up from 23.3% in 18% in '18.


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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 16
09/06/2020 12:26 pm  
Posted by: @themaven

Interesting reading.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/padres-trade-rumors-clevinger-indians-nola-mariners-luis-campusano.html

Apparently Hedges and Miller tipped the scales for the deal.

Miller couldn't hit RH pitching or outside the hitting haven of his home park in the Texas League. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-04-15/padres-top-prospects-no-10-owen-miller%3f_amp=true

I would be shocked if he ever has more than a Mike Freeman like role in the Majors and that should not be the basis for this trade.


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buckaroo
(@buckaroo)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 9
09/06/2020 6:39 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg

A few comments/observations - 

Hitters have started teeing off on Karinchak's FB.  It started a few games ago.  I was going to comment on it one or two appearances ago, but the results seems to have continued unabated.  Initially, I thought one of two things.  One, that he's telegraphing the pitch.  Or two, hitters are only looking for his FB (because they can't hit his CB), and looking for it up in the zone.  But, last night, Karinchak varied the location of the pitch, and he still wasn't fooling hitters.  The velocity was a bit off, but I don't think enough to matter.  So, I think one cause for his surprisingly poor results recently might be that hitters know what's coming.

McKenzie's FB had an average spin rpm of 2,432 in his debut.  In his 3rd game, when his FB averaged 92.7 mph, down from 94.5 mph, his spin was 2,313.

These are Lindor's FB percentages from 2015 to present - 

2015 - 28.7%

2016 - 28.4%

2017 - 42.4%

2018 - 39.6%

2019 - 36.3%

2020 - 32.0%

Naquin has been hitting well and is largely responsible for the improved production in the middle of the lineup.  That said, I wish he would draw more walks.  His BB% is a ridiculously low 1.4%.  It was 4.8% last year and 3.3% in '18.  So I didn't think it could get worse, but it has.  He needs a high BA to maintain an acceptable OBP, which he's achieving so far.  He doubled his launch angle in '19 from '18, and he's maintained that this year, although it's still a relatively low (by today's standards) 33.3%.  And according to Statcast, his HardHit% has increased by 5.7%.

Is this why Karinchak has not pitched in 5 days or so?  Working on some things?


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 44
09/06/2020 11:52 pm  
Posted by: @calbuckeyerob
Posted by: @themaven

Interesting reading.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/padres-trade-rumors-clevinger-indians-nola-mariners-luis-campusano.html

Apparently Hedges and Miller tipped the scales for the deal.

Miller couldn't hit RH pitching or outside the hitting haven of his home park in the Texas League. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-04-15/padres-top-prospects-no-10-owen-miller%3f_amp=true

I would be shocked if he ever has more than a Mike Freeman like role in the Majors and that should not be the basis for this trade.

No argument from me,I find it amusing that Hedges and Miller were the impetus to the deal myself.

In related news ,Padres catching prospect Luis Campusano homered in his first major league at bat and then sprained his wrist and was put on I.L. Sunday.

 


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 185
09/07/2020 7:57 am  
Posted by: @calbuckeyerob
Posted by: @themaven

Interesting reading.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/padres-trade-rumors-clevinger-indians-nola-mariners-luis-campusano.html

Apparently Hedges and Miller tipped the scales for the deal.

Miller couldn't hit RH pitching or outside the hitting haven of his home park in the Texas League. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-04-15/padres-top-prospects-no-10-owen-miller%3f_amp=true

I would be shocked if he ever has more than a Mike Freeman like role in the Majors and that should not be the basis for this trade.

Miller has hit everywhere except the AZFL last yr (.174 BA)

.345 in college

.264 in Northwoods League in 2018

.365 in Northwoods League in 2019

.333 in Cape Cod League in 2019

.316 against RHP in 2018

.276 against RHP in 2019

.350 at home in 2018 and .308 on the road

.328 at home in 2019 and .255 on the road

That's a long track record of hitting. He's hit over .300 against older pitchers. For me, I like the Ben Zobrist comps (career .266 BA / 16 HRS) without the same versatility. Miller has less power 10-12hrs*.


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buckaroo
(@buckaroo)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 9
09/08/2020 8:15 pm  
Posted by: @detdawg

Triston's velo was down yet again, to 92.7 mph. from 94.5 in his debut and 93.3 in his 2nd start.  I was expecting a bit of a decline in his 2nd game, but 1.2 mph was a surprise.  And his drop of another 0.6 mph is a bit concerning.  His 2nd game was on 6 games rest.  His game last night was on 5 days rest.  His next game will be on 6 days rest, assuming the Indians maintain their current 5-man rotation.  Hopefully, the extra day will get his velo back into the 93s.  If it doesn't, then we may have to adjust out thinking as to what kind of velo he has in a major league rotation, and maybe the Indians might want to consider finding him some extra rest when feasible.

In the 94s, his FB has more swing-and-miss than it does in the 92s, particularly up in the zone.  What helped him last night was improved command and surprisingly good location of the breaking pitches.

  Was told yesterday that Triston was advised to vary the speeds on his fastball more;  throw some low-90s along with the mid, which would make his fastball even more effective.  That would explain why he threw quite a few at 95, and one 96, but a bunch in the 91-92 range,  and aside from location issues, was still quite effective, and got a number of swings and misses still.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 44
09/08/2020 9:43 pm  

I would trade Delino DeShields and Adam Cimber for a roast beef sandwich,a cherry coke and a free car wash to be named later.


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 207
09/08/2020 11:04 pm  
Posted by: @buckaroo
Posted by: @detdawg

Triston's velo was down yet again, to 92.7 mph. from 94.5 in his debut and 93.3 in his 2nd start.  I was expecting a bit of a decline in his 2nd game, but 1.2 mph was a surprise.  And his drop of another 0.6 mph is a bit concerning.  His 2nd game was on 6 games rest.  His game last night was on 5 days rest.  His next game will be on 6 days rest, assuming the Indians maintain their current 5-man rotation.  Hopefully, the extra day will get his velo back into the 93s.  If it doesn't, then we may have to adjust out thinking as to what kind of velo he has in a major league rotation, and maybe the Indians might want to consider finding him some extra rest when feasible.

In the 94s, his FB has more swing-and-miss than it does in the 92s, particularly up in the zone.  What helped him last night was improved command and surprisingly good location of the breaking pitches.

  Was told yesterday that Triston was advised to vary the speeds on his fastball more;  throw some low-90s along with the mid, which would make his fastball even more effective.  That would explain why he threw quite a few at 95, and one 96, but a bunch in the 91-92 range,  and aside from location issues, was still quite effective, and got a number of swings and misses still.

According to Statcast, he maxed out at 94.3.  He did throw about 6 FBs below 91 mph, so it appeared was varying velocity.  However, for that strategy to work, at least in my opinion, he needs to change speeds more within individual at-bats.  Tonight, McKenzie seemed to vary velocities against different hitters.

Here's a graph of each of McKenzie's 47 FBs, in order.  You can get the details of each pitch by scrolling over each dot.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=631559&game_date=&type=home_pitchers&chart_view=velocity&chart_type=pitch_name&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=FF&player=home-pitchers_615698&view=Umpire&coloring=Pitch%20Type


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Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 57
09/10/2020 8:58 am  
Posted by: @themaven

I would trade Delino DeShields and Adam Cimber for a roast beef sandwich,a cherry coke and a free car wash to be named later.

DeShields is second on the team in batting average. Which tells us:

 

1) Batting average is not the end all statistic 

2) Small sample sizes make for strange and wrong results

3) He's clearly going to be starting for at least another week because Mercado, Zimmer, Johnson and Luplow - the folks who could conceivably take some ABs from him - were significantly worse. 

 

 


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 207
09/10/2020 9:34 am  
Posted by: @edible14
Posted by: @themaven

I would trade Delino DeShields and Adam Cimber for a roast beef sandwich,a cherry coke and a free car wash to be named later.

DeShields is second on the team in batting average. Which tells us:

 

1) Batting average is not the end all statistic 

2) Small sample sizes make for strange and wrong results

3) He's clearly going to be starting for at least another week because Mercado, Zimmer, Johnson and Luplow - the folks who could conceivably take some ABs from him - were significantly worse. 

 

 

I agree with you regarding 1 and 2.  However, IMO, Mercado might be a near-term option.  He looks better this time around, after a stint at the Alternate Site, and he's a superior defender in CF, as well as being a good baserunner.  One thing I noticed, however, that concerned me, is that he seemed to be susceptible to high FBs.  Sort of how Naquin was exposed a few years ago after his breakout.  It's too small a sample size to make a definitive conclusion, and I hope I'm wrong, particularly as I thought Mercado had decent bat speed.  But, assuming he gets some more starts, which I assume he will, that's what I'll be looking at.


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buckaroo
(@buckaroo)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 9
09/10/2020 7:37 pm  

Wow, we are being no-hit through 5 after being shut out last night.  Against the terrible Royals!

 

WTF happened to our bats?   It is incredible how bad they have hit for most of the year, with a few moments of sudden and short-lived eptitude on occasions.


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BZRD
 BZRD
(@bzrd)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 9
09/10/2020 7:44 pm  

I thought these guys were painful to watch earlier in the year but this is really gettin brutal.  The offense sucks so bad it could pull 30 inches on an onion sack!  Everyone is trying to hit 3 run homers with the bases empty.  Santana continues to ground out to medium deep right field.  And Jose Popup, if your little thumb hurts, then sit your but down until it feels better, you are not doing anybody any good popping out every time up.  DeShields looks as lost as last year's Easter egg in centerfield.  I have not seen any worse base running above the tee ball level.  The pitching has been lights out but how many good outing have been wasted?  Hard to win if you don't score any runs.  I know, somebody is going to come up with some average runs per game crap but only because they have had a couple blowouts where many of the runs were meaningless.  This type of performance will get them into the playoffs and will get them an early out out of the playoffs.  When every opponents pitcher is having a career performance, it says something about your offense.


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The Prosecutor
(@pros)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 5 months ago
Posts: 45
09/11/2020 9:11 am  

Everybody seems to be expecting a lineup change today with Lindor going back to leadoff. Maybe that helps.

Also, Alomar criticized the hitters after Wednesday's game for their poor approach to hitting with runners in scoring position (overaggressive, long swings) and after last night's game for abandoning the game plan early. 

The Royals showed how it is done. Last night with no score in the third inning and runners on first and second with two out, Hunter Dozier got jammed and used an inside-out swing to loop a single into right field, bringing in the first run and setting up two more runs. Dozier is their cleanup hitter but he didn't try for a three-run homer. Just get a two-out base hit, get one run in, and give the next guy a chance to add on, which he did. 

You don't see our cleanup hitter doing that. 

 


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