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Let talk about the draft  

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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/15/2020 2:44 pm  

@gson

I like the tools Dingler possesses. It seems the Tribe has emphasized adding defensive oriented Cs this past offseason with Leon, Taylor and Melendez. Also signing J2 C Robert Perez - he's regarded as a solid defender with similar upside with the bat. Those additions seem to clue us fans into what they value at the position and it shows an emphasis at that position. 

I see Dingler as a 240-250 hitter at best with 15 Homer's/ 5sb. That's not bat, but his offense isn't all he offers. He's got a plus arm - maybe the best in the draft at the position. He's someone that could help an outfield in a pinch. I'm not hung up on getting him. I'd hope for one the big 3 prep arms or a bat like PCA, Walker and Soderstrom.

I wouldn't mind one of Adam Kerner, Shane McGuire or Wyatt Hendrie in rd 5. One or 2 them could be UDFAs.


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OhioBaseball
(@ohiobaseball)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 2
05/15/2020 5:23 pm  

I think its likely the Indians go cheap this year, whether that is punting picks for 2021 or just cheap signs early. Longenhagen was interviewed on LGT a couple weeks ago and he said the Indians rely on models so much (i.e. drafting young players) because it is cheaper than paying for a lot of scouts and their related expenses. They'd likely prefer more qualitative measurements, but the incremental benefit is not enough to justify the cost. The Indians have a model-driven approach and there is very little data being generated right now making the models' validity less reliable than average this particular year and even more reason to be tight with money.

If the Indians have a directive of limited money in 2020, which I suspect, I can see punting a pick or two, and going cheap on some other picks.

The Indians advantage is absolutely the $ they have already invested in player development and related infrastructure. There is apparently a hard cap on $20k for undrafted players, which is where I suspect the Indians will get the best bang for their buck. There will be a lot of guys undrafted that would prefer to play pro ball. None of these will be great prospects, but the Indians are one of the teams that can sell the players on their player development and why signing with the Indians is better for them financially long term than some other teams. The Indians aren't alone in this regard, but if I were Dolan, I want the best value I can get for my limited resources and this is absolutely where it is going to be.

Probably underwhelming early selections but getting value on $20k signings is where the Indians' focus is likely to be. The Underspending on the draft is not going to be noticed by 99% of fans and I think this is where Dolan tries to get some savings. Just my opinion and I hope I am wrong.

This post was modified 3 weeks ago by OhioBaseball

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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/16/2020 2:47 pm  

@ohiobaseball

Hey OB glad to see you make the transition over. I can definitely see that as a possibility. In fact, Kiley McDaniel recently said as many as 12 teams are considering approaching the draft by offering under slot to all the college talents (he specifically mentions 70% of the slot as the number). McDaniel also stated that the Dodgers are considering blowing out their pool space. They have 7 picks, more than any other team in MLB. Future draft pick penalty would fall late in the first round(s). Meaning they could get a haul of talent.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/16/2020 3:03 pm  

As I think about it more with the deferrals in place the only real way to save anything immediately is to punt a pick. All top 3 rounds are protected and we could see a number of teams do that.

I wouldn't hate it. But, I also believe the Tribe could have a qlty draft even if they spent 70% of pool or about $6M (the number McDaniel suggested). That could mean grabbing a player or 2 a round earlier than they are projected. Other routes could include: college heavy, an early senior sign or perhaps adding a reliever or obvious under slot signing early.


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Tondo
(@tondo)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 4
05/16/2020 5:20 pm  

Here's a 6M mock draft:

23 LHP D. Fulton 2.2M

36 RHP Hence or CF Halpin 1.5M

56 RHP Bedell 1M

95 RHP Denholm 500K

124 2B/OF Polcovich 300K

154 SS/3B S. Ceballos 500K

 

UDFA list:

Seniors

LHP Lardner - Gonzaga

CF Troiani - Bentley 

1B Matt Mervis - Duke

INF Ben Carew - Kent State

C Friscia - Purdue

CF S. Hunter - Purdue 

RHP Van Belle - Miami

LHP Tanner Hall - Mercer

LHP/OF L. Lockhart - Houston 

1B/3B Pohl - Ohio State 

Juniors

LHP Sam Strickland - Samford 

2B Izaya Fullard - Iowa

RHP Cam Cowan - Campbell 

LHP Griffan Smith - Ohio State 

 


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TheTater
(@thetater)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 2
05/17/2020 9:49 am  

Thank you for keeping the forums alive.  Long time reader first time poster.

Based on the Tribe modeling strategy and the little data available this year to analyze via DiamondView, do you think the Tribe will abandon their previous model and focus on college juniors and seniors which could lead to selections of pitchers with high grades in control/command like Bryce Jarvis, Ian Bedell and Landon Knack as well as hit tool mavens like Soularie and Loftin or HS hit tools like Soderstrom and Hassell?

 

Nice mock too.  Solid choices with a wild card in Fulton.

 


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MadThinker88
(@madthinker88)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 7
05/17/2020 12:32 pm  

I was catching up on various podcasts over the past few days. I can't recall which podcast it was (it could have been the IBI pod with Justin & Willie) but an interesting note was conveyed: the current projected international J2 class for the Tribe is heavy on position players & light on pitchers (only 3 pitcher signings projected).

Perhaps the Tribe feels it is currently loaded with pitchers down the minor league ranks or the pre-Covid plans had an idea of emphasis on position heavy internationally while the early draft plans would be pitching heavy.  Who knows.

Now that the draft is 5 rounds (6 picks with the Competitive Balance pick), I would expect the Tribe to select more pitching than position player talent in its 6 selections.. 

Tondo has mocked 4 pitchers to the Tribe to open the draft (& I think everyone agrees that Ian Bedell has Tribe selection written all over him).  I feel Tondo is on the right path with that line of thinking..

 


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Tondo
(@tondo)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 4
05/17/2020 1:29 pm  

Pitching is the strength of this class and while Longenhagen has recently lauded the depth's of arms in the system (his Indians list comes out tomorrow), by my count, we have more hitting prospects (though it's pretty even in the top 20 or so). This is indeed a direct result of recent position player heavy IFA groups.

It's so frustrating that the draft is only 5 rounds. The Indians model would have gotten great value out of the college pitching depth if it was 20 or even 10 rounds. The 20K UDFA crap probably costs them any advantage they had.

That said, I hope they at least go BPA early, especially if they aren't afraid to punt picks. There's almost a 2 months negotiation window and little pressure to get picks signed with no minors play, so they can go hardball and low ball their picks. 

Why not something like this:

23 RHP Bitsko

36 LHP Fulton

56 CF Halpin or RHP Hence or Santos or Rosario or Hagenow 

95 SS Ondina or Zamora or Z. Warren or Troy or Blakely or Freeland 

124 RHP Denholm or Hickman or OF Soularie or Hauver

154 College SR

Could also go college SR in 4th to get all HS picks signed, but basically the idea is that every pick serves as safety net for the one before, especially the top 3 selections, and less fear of punting a pick. That way, we might still "only" get Fulton/Halpin like in my 6M mock, but get the 24th pick next year for not signing Bitsko.

We could also draft Knack at 56 and go full throttle BPA with top 2 picks, any combination of Walker, Kelley, Bitsko, Fulton, PCA, Crews. 

There are infinite ways of slicing it in order to reduce cost, but still get or preserve value. 


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/17/2020 1:29 pm  
Posted by: @madthinker88

I was catching up on various podcasts over the past few days. I can't recall which podcast it was (it could have been the IBI pod with Justin & Willie) but an interesting note was conveyed: the current projected international J2 class for the Tribe is heavy on position players & light on pitchers (only 3 pitcher signings projected).

Perhaps the Tribe feels it is currently loaded with pitchers down the minor league ranks or the pre-Covid plans had an idea of emphasis on position heavy internationally while the early draft plans would be pitching heavy.  Who knows.

Now that the draft is 5 rounds (6 picks with the Competitive Balance pick), I would expect the Tribe to select more pitching than position player talent in its 6 selections.. 

Tondo has mocked 4 pitchers to the Tribe to open the draft (& I think everyone agrees that Ian Bedell has Tribe selection written all over him).  I feel Tondo is on the right path with that line of thinking..

 

Yes, I mentioned that they have 18 players lined up for the next J2 period and only 3 are pitchers. The Tribe hasn't invested much on the International pitchers in the last few seasons. Tahnaj Thomas got $200k and was a converted 3b. Ignacio Feliz was a converted SS that signed for $85k. See a trend there? They moved both at potential peak value too - if you assume this is the highest risk demographic to pay off. They'll need pitching for the lower levels as soon as next year, but they also held several college arms back in Arizona last season. They'll address it somewhat in the draft but I look for them to try to key in on signable college arms as UDFA. These arms will help fill out the low level and complex leagues. All of this said the Indians can still continue to sign J2 talent. I don't have solid numbers on any of the players for the J2 period at this time but I can safely say they have roughly $2.5M to $3M on three (Alduey, Genao, and R.Perez). Last year they signed about 20 pitchers. I know 10 or more received less than $10k. In other words, these are not significant investments and probably fall more likey into the org depth category rapidly.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/17/2020 1:42 pm  

There is a lot of speculation that teams will try to float players to the 3rd round by drafting nearly all college players through the first 2 rounds. That could push guys like Dylan Crews, Jordan Walker, Carson Montgomery, and Alex Santos into the third round where a team could hardball them and still get a decent comp pick should they go to school without missing out on as much of their overall bonus pool if they can't get them signed.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/17/2020 9:21 pm  
Posted by: @thetater

Thank you for keeping the forums alive.  Long time reader first time poster.

Based on the Tribe modeling strategy and the little data available this year to analyze via DiamondView, do you think the Tribe will abandon their previous model and focus on college juniors and seniors which could lead to selections of pitchers with high grades in control/command like Bryce Jarvis, Ian Bedell and Landon Knack as well as hit tool mavens like Soularie and Loftin or HS hit tools like Soderstrom and Hassell?

 

Nice mock too.  Solid choices with a wild card in Fulton.

 

Welcome to the boards glad to have you!

I will have a piece posting soon that covers the Indians draft tragedy and check out the podcasts for this week too. There will be 2 podcasts this week as we close in on the draft there will be plenty of content posted. The first podcast covers the possible return of baseball and the second podcast will cover the draft, rumors, players, and strategy the club could employ.


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/21/2020 2:44 pm  

Former IBI writer Jeff Ellis posted his mock a few days ago. I thought it was pretty interesting...

1.23 Carmen Mlodzinski

1.36 Tanner Witt

2.56 Zach McChambley

That's three RHSP. All 3 seem to fit the Tribe's demographic. Though I'd say Mlodzinski has had a higher BB rate than what the Indians draft. I like all 3 arms and would be really excited about Tanner Witt there's 4-pitches and 3 with abv avg grades. McChambley feels a little early, but I can see him going anywhere in rounds 2-4. He has a high spin rate CB and only fringe CH. 

 

MLB.com's Jonathon Mayo went with Dillon DIngler also associated to the Tribe by his writing partner Jim Callis, and Kiley McDaniel. Dingler is an older for the class C that doesn't check all the boxes but he does bring plenty upside.


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TheTater
(@thetater)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 2
05/21/2020 10:06 pm  

Mlb.com loves mocking Dingler to the Tribe.  Luckily I listened to their podcast while cutting the grass and the writer admitted he had no idea and just went with the best available.

I've been trying to figure out who fits the Tribe modeling.  This is what I came up with...

Mock draft:

23 Best Available HS who slips (Kelley/Abel/PCA/Soderstrom/Hassell/Howard)

36 RHP Bryce Jarvis = Spent summer at Driveline

56 RHP Ian Bedell = Classic Tribe/I love it

95 1B/3B Blaze Jordan = The FO crush is real

124 OF/2B Aleric Soularie = Hit tool w versatility

154 RHP Mac McCarty = Senior sign/Robert Broom 2.0 

Thoughts?


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/22/2020 7:33 pm  
Posted by: @thetater

Mlb.com loves mocking Dingler to the Tribe.  Luckily I listened to their podcast while cutting the grass and the writer admitted he had no idea and just went with the best available.

I've been trying to figure out who fits the Tribe modeling.  This is what I came up with...

Mock draft:

23 Best Available HS who slips (Kelley/Abel/PCA/Soderstrom/Hassell/Howard)

36 RHP Bryce Jarvis = Spent summer at Driveline

56 RHP Ian Bedell = Classic Tribe/I love it

95 1B/3B Blaze Jordan = The FO crush is real

124 OF/2B Aleric Soularie = Hit tool w versatility

154 RHP Mac McCarty = Senior sign/Robert Broom 2.0 

Thoughts?

I agree they seem likely to grab whatever prep player slides at 23. I've expressed my affinity for Jordan Walker who I would not be surprised to see drafted at 23 or somewhere in the 20's bc of his massive upside and probability it's gonna take some cash.

Bryce Jarvis intrigues bc I feel his changes / improvement legit. As stated he's a product of Driveline with the analytical implementation of changes and the work he's put in he's certainly an appropriate mnetion somewhere in the 20-40 range, IMO. Jarvis fits the demographic excluding age (22.5) but his high floor and qlty upside make him interesting. As does the likelihood he flies through whatever system that drafts him.

Bedell could go 56 or 95, IMO. I'd be thrilled with Bedell at either. 

At 95 Jordan could be there, I doubt it. There are some signability and hitting ability concerns beyond the massive power. All said, i think he goes second round range and 56 would not surprise. I love the pop and he certainly fits the age box (17.5).

Personally, I'm hoping for someone like Zach McChambley, Bryce Elder, Holden Powell, Ryan Webb, Adam Seminaris, Tommy Troy, Zavier Warren, Jackson Miller, Taylor Pollard, Mason Miller, and Tanner Bibbee to name a few in rounds 3-5.

Soularie is an intriguing bat but seems to lack a position. 

I like Mac McCarty, he's an older senior (23.4) and obviously doesn't have much upside. He was absolutely dominate this season. I wouldn't mind bringing him in at least as a UDFA. I like the idea of saving money and reallocating it. We could see an older college junior in that kind of role. Maybe someone like Casey Opitz or Adam Kerner make sense in that kind of scenario.

 


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 42
05/26/2020 10:28 pm  

McDaniel had an interesting new mock out today...

1.23 Jared Kelley

1.36 JT Ginn

I'd be happy. That's a ton.of upside with both arms. Kelley is older than most prep players the club has drafted. Ginn doesnt have a long track record with the improved control but he still has big upside. Heck, I'd be happy with one or both.


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