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Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 64
10/06/2020 6:33 pm  

I actually think Hedges is more likely to be non-tendered. He has the exact same amount of control as Roberto, and while their framing is comparable, Berto knows the staff better and is better at blocking. He is more expensive, but he's still not exactly costly. 


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 187
10/07/2020 10:32 am  

I think Perez has trade value and is likely gone. He's older, has had some injuries, and more expensive. That said, clubs need catching, and he should net a pair of prospects. Maybe a potentially big-league ready piece and a younger player in return.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 50
10/07/2020 7:20 pm  

Hedges is going no where

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/padres-trade-rumors-clevinger-indians-nola-mariners-luis-campusano.html

The salient paragraph:

'Preller, in fact, was informed Sunday evening that his Padres were “out” of the Clevinger bidding, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). The Indians told the Padres that they were sitting on a better offer and likely to proceed in another direction. That call prompted the club to reconvene and alter its package, ultimately adding infield prospect Owen Miller and catcher Austin Hedges early Monday morning. Those pieces put San Diego’s offer over the top, it seems, as word of Clevinger’s trade to the Friars was out several hours before the 4pm ET deadline.'

Hedges made 3 million last year and will be lucky to get 3.5 in arb3,Leon can be resigned for 1 to 1.5 million,maybe less given the economic climate.So two catchers for the 5.5 million(-.5m buyout) that Perez would cost alone.This is how the Indians do business.

The defensively comparable(loosely) free agent catchers available for 2021 as of now are Zunino,Suzuki.Castro,Flowers.Leon,McCann,Ramos and Realmuto.(Four off these guys were regulars on playoff teams)No reason to trade assets for a guy who will likely cost quite a bit more than all but one of them at 5.5 million,when you can just sign him after he's cut loose.

In view of Antonetti's recent statement /interview concerning the Tribe's financial situation you better believe they will be throwing nickels like manhole covers.


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Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 64
10/08/2020 3:43 pm  
Posted by: @willhoo99

I think Perez has trade value and is likely gone. He's older, has had some injuries, and more expensive. That said, clubs need catching, and he should net a pair of prospects. Maybe a potentially big-league ready piece and a younger player in return.

I agree that Perez is the better trade candidate. My point was that if either was going to be straight up let go, it would more likely be Hedges. I think trade is the more likely route either way. 


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CalBuckeyeRob
(@calbuckeyerob)
Draft Prospect
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 18
10/08/2020 7:05 pm  
Posted by: @themaven

Hedges is going no where

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/padres-trade-rumors-clevinger-indians-nola-mariners-luis-campusano.html

The salient paragraph:

'Preller, in fact, was informed Sunday evening that his Padres were “out” of the Clevinger bidding, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). The Indians told the Padres that they were sitting on a better offer and likely to proceed in another direction. That call prompted the club to reconvene and alter its package, ultimately adding infield prospect Owen Miller and catcher Austin Hedges early Monday morning. Those pieces put San Diego’s offer over the top, it seems, as word of Clevinger’s trade to the Friars was out several hours before the 4pm ET deadline.'

Hedges made 3 million last year and will be lucky to get 3.5 in arb3,Leon can be resigned for 1 to 1.5 million,maybe less given the economic climate.So two catchers for the 5.5 million(-.5m buyout) that Perez would cost alone.This is how the Indians do business.

The defensively comparable(loosely) free agent catchers available for 2021 as of now are Zunino,Suzuki.Castro,Flowers.Leon,McCann,Ramos and Realmuto.(Four off these guys were regulars on playoff teams)No reason to trade assets for a guy who will likely cost quite a bit more than all but one of them at 5.5 million,when you can just sign him after he's cut loose.

In view of Antonetti's recent statement /interview concerning the Tribe's financial situation you better believe they will be throwing nickels like manhole covers.

Agree. While I think their attraction to Hedges is inexplicable, it seems to be real. Or at a minimum, to not make the Clevinger trade look bad, they need to keep the major league parts they acquired.  So Quantrill and Hedges are sticking in 2021 for better or worse.


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Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 4 months ago
Posts: 64
10/16/2020 12:45 am  

MLBTR made their yearly arbitration forecasts. This year, in part because of how weird this next year promises to be, they listed three potential projections on arbitration, giving an effective range instead of a flat projection. The Indians' cases are as follows:

  • Austin Hedges – $3.0MM / $3.1MM / $3.0MM
  • Adam Cimber – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Delino DeShields – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $2.1MM
  • Francisco Lindor – $17.5MM / $21.5MM / $19.0MM
  • Phil Maton – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Nick Wittgren – $1.4MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM

The only one there that looks like a possible non tender is Cimber, but my suspicion is they keep all of them and trade Lindor. That would make the total projections for these guys $27.2m to $33.6. Without Lindor, that range is $9.7m to $12.1m. 

Cots has their 2021 obligations at $23.1m (just for buyouts, Jose and Carrasco) before options are considered. If you assume as I do that they'll keep Hand and Roberto on while declining Santana, that adds roughly $14m.

So if Lindor is gone, and there's not salary coming back, you have 6 arb guys, 4 guys on contract (Jose, Carrasco, Hand, Perez), and 15 guys making minimum ($7.5m roughly). 

23.1 + 14 + 7.5 + 9.7 = $54.6m, or $57m if they go towards the high end of arbitration.

The Antonetti interview implied they'll be cutting back payroll. Realistically they can cut it back pretty far just by trading Lindor. But it is worth noting that they could likely achieve a similar cut by trading both Hand and Carrasco. Hand being an expiring contract and Carrasco being very close to 10&5 no trade rights. 

They're in a pretty good position to scale back salary however much they need. I don't think there's any sort of need to decline options on Hand or Roberto for savings. 

 


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