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Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 70
11/09/2020 12:33 am  

If nobody was willing to take on Hand for a waiver wire claim, Carrasco is probably untradeable. He will cross 10&5 rights early in next season and he will essentially be an Indian for life. 

They may likely need to take some salary back to get a good return on a Lindor trade.

I am sure they'd like to get down to $40-$50m, but I don't see that as feasible when every other team is also trying to cut back aside from the Mets. 


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 62
11/09/2020 11:18 am  

@edible14

There is no way I can see the Tribe taking on salary in any deal for Lindor.They may take a player/s with a modest salary in return,but nothing of consequence.

If they can't dump his salary, they would just keep him instead.They aren't going to pay him to play elsewhere unless the return is so astronomical no team would would make the deal.


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Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 70
11/10/2020 3:34 pm  

@themaven

Yeah, when I say take salary back, I'm talking about taking back someone who is maybe in arbitration already as part of the deal. 


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 62
11/17/2020 12:18 am  

Clevinger is slated for his second Tommy John surgery,once again proving the Indians organization has a real handle on when to trade a veteran arm.

I still may not like the package they got for Clevinger,but it has become evident there was a reason they wanted to deal him when they did.

The Padres will receive four starts and a re-establishing season from the deal,Preller loses again.Maybe we can snake him on a Lindor trade?It's worth a try.


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Edible14
(@edible14)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 70
11/21/2020 6:42 pm  

I don't think they really need Lindor with Machado and Tatis there. 

Indians add: Nolan Jones, Eli Morgan, Carlos Vargas, Erie Clement, and Gabriel Arias to the 40. Leaving a few interesting names unprotected

Guys who went through rule V once, so probably safe again: Ka'ai Tom, Connor Marabell, Oscar Gonzalez, Dahlbert Siri, Ben Krauth

Guys who hadn't gotten past Low A and weren't at the Alternative Site, so... wild cards: Jose Fermin, Luis Oviedo, Raymond Burgos 

Also Will Benson

Fermin is the one most likely to be taken I think. Oviedo is good but doesn't have the stuff to play up as a reliever. Burgos doesn't have the results yet. Benson's strike out issues and struggles in Lynchburg in 2019 are concerning. 

Fermin is a plus defender at 2B and can play SS/3B, with really good speed. That alone would make him a plausible guy to stash on the bench. His bat to ball ability and ability to work counts suggest his offense could eventually become major league worthy even if he never develops power. He hasn't been past A ball, and that's why the Indians probably felt safe enough to not add him. 

Meanwhile they still have Jefry Rodriguez on the 40, and I'm surprised they thought Clement needed to be protected. 

Clement is probably in the mix for a job opening day. Jones they probably will hold back for service time reasons. 


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GSon
 GSon
(@gson)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 44
11/24/2020 10:15 am  

Re: If charlien Morton is worth $ 15 MM for one year.. then Carlos Carrasco is certainly worth $ 38 MM over three years including his third year option.. Alex Anthopolous has taken on $ 26 MM for both Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton.. Add these to veterans to the Fried Soroka & Anderson.. make the Braves odds on to win the NL East. 

Given that only Bauer seems to be the man anyone is talking about as free agent.. and now that these two healthy guys have signed.. Cookie on a three year deal at an AAV less than $ 13 MM/yr.. is a bargain.. a bargain that should return a guy who fills a hole in the Indians offense at at least one and possibly two of their three holes: 

Outfield:

Second Base:

Catcher:

 

Thoughts?

This post was modified 2 weeks ago by GSon

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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 62
11/26/2020 12:28 am  

Adam Cimber DFA!

I will not miss this acid reflux inducing knuckle scraper one bit.


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 62
11/26/2020 12:45 am  
Posted by: @gson

Re: If charlien Morton is worth $ 15 MM for one year.. then Carlos Carrasco is certainly worth $ 38 MM over three years including his third year option.. Alex Anthopolous has taken on $ 26 MM for both Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton.. Add these to veterans to the Fried Soroka & Anderson.. make the Braves odds on to win the NL East. 

Given that only Bauer seems to be the man anyone is talking about as free agent.. and now that these two healthy guys have signed.. Cookie on a three year deal at an AAV less than $ 13 MM/yr.. is a bargain.. a bargain that should return a guy who fills a hole in the Indians offense at at least one and possibly two of their three holes: 

Outfield:

Second Base:

Catcher:

 

Thoughts?

Because a GM rushes in and bids against himself,pulling a Shapiro as I like to call it, doesn't mean that these are actual benchmark values.

The Gausman,Clevinger,Roy and Smyly deals are just bad moves imho.

Morton is a one year gamble on an ageing top pitcher,so no problem there.

The common thread is that no talent was given up in any of these signings just cash.Expecting a team to give up a quality player and then pay Carrasco, who has yet to prove that the leukemia won't affect him over the course of a full season(and he certainly was babied this past season), is a bit of wishful thinking.

Teams are desperate for pitching though,and it only takes one GM with a wild hair.

 


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The Prosecutor
(@pros)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 48
11/26/2020 11:10 am  

Cookie had 12 starts last year with a 2.91 ERA and a WAR of 1.6. Project that to 30 starts and his WAR is 4.0, the second highest of his career. The question is whether he would have started 30 games. 

His medical situation seems to be under control once they diagnosed it and he had time to recover and respond to meds. He'll turn 34 in March but if a team thinks he can give them 90 starts over the next three seasons with no appreciable drop-off in effectiveness then he's more than worth the money. 


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GSon
 GSon
(@gson)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 44
11/26/2020 12:55 pm  

@themaven

 

Doesn't take a GM with wild hair or desperation to see that Cookie was durable and capable of performing.. What happens in the future is what future contracts project.. but they're based on what has been done.. and that is pretty damn good from Cookie..

 

There is no free lunch.. if a team needs a quality starting pitcher.. they pay for it..either with $$$ or with prospect currency.. They pay because that quality starting pitcher.. is WORTH IT..


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Themaven
(@themaven)
Short-A newcomer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 62
11/27/2020 12:54 pm  

Carrasco averaged 5.66 inning per start over 40% of a full season and was pushed back for extra rest for several starts.He proved nothing as far as durability goes.

By the eye test,Carrasco would completely lose his command and stuff rapidly at times.

No one knows how having leukemia will affect a pitcher over a full season,what Carrasco did last season was remarkable to me,but if I'm a GM I'm not risking major league talent and a fair chunk of change on him doing it for a full season,much less for three seasons starting at age 33.

Let's not forget the Kluber and Clevinger trades have to have anyone dealing with the Tribe being gun shy at trading for a veteran pitcher that they are willing to deal.

I just don't see a big market for Carrasco given his age and ongoing medical condition,although Tommy Pham is in a similar situation and he's been traded for twice.

I've been wrong before,but if they did trade him it wouldn't be for much,certainly not a player capable of filling a hole on the major league roster.

 


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Willie Hood
(@willhoo99)
Member Moderator
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 188
12/01/2020 9:04 pm  
Posted by: @gson

@themaven

 

Doesn't take a GM with wild hair or desperation to see that Cookie was durable and capable of performing.. What happens in the future is what future contracts project.. but they're based on what has been done.. and that is pretty damn good from Cookie..

 

There is no free lunch.. if a team needs a quality starting pitcher.. they pay for it..either with $$$ or with prospect currency.. They pay because that quality starting pitcher.. is WORTH IT..

Someone recently said that there are two currencies in baseball (Steve Cohen?). They are cash and prospects.

Those who have followed the site know I'm an advocate for stockpiling arms because young, controllable arms can get a team anything they want. While Cookie is not the former, he's certainly the latter (controllable). If things go south, his option will act as a nuclear option allowing the team to escape the deal. Furthermore, he's on a deal I'd equate to Chris Archer at the time of his deal. That is, under market in terms of monetary compensation.

I'm by no means a proponent of dealing Cookie, but I can see the case for it in the right scenario. That includes a pitching starved or hungry org offering a king's ransom. 

 


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 215
12/01/2020 11:16 pm  

@willhoo99

I'm not a fan of trading Carrasco either. And I think he's more valuable than some others on this board have opined. Even if he's still impacted by his bout of cancer, and IMO that isn't a given, he has a history of being able to both start and relieve. That flexibility has value to the Indians, and would be to other teams as well.

As for the right scenario, it might unfortunately include the Indians' need, even desperation, to shed salary.  And Carrasco's salary is one of the few options available cut payroll by a significant chunk.


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GSon
 GSon
(@gson)
Rookie League baller
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 44
12/02/2020 7:36 am  

@willhoo99

Agreed...  good, young controllable pitchers are the currency of dreams.. but, like stock...it only matters when you buy and when you sell.. selling at peak value would be where Carrasco would be if he's moved during this off season..

The king's ransom needs to be near ML ready OF'ers or position players.. but, like many... I'd prefer to see Carlos ride off into the sunset while wearing a jersey that once had Chief Wahoo on his sleeve.. and no other logo. The fiscal sanity of the Cleveland Indians business may be the straw that breaks the cookie from our wigwam.. and that's understandable.. but unliked..

Thanks for the response...


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DetDawg
(@detdawg)
Low-A dreamer
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 215
12/02/2020 9:42 am  
Posted by: @gson

@willhoo99

Agreed...  good, young controllable pitchers are the currency of dreams.. but, like stock...it only matters when you buy and when you sell.. selling at peak value would be where Carrasco would be if he's moved during this off season..

The king's ransom needs to be near ML ready OF'ers or position players.. but, like many... I'd prefer to see Carlos ride off into the sunset while wearing a jersey that once had Chief Wahoo on his sleeve.. and no other logo. The fiscal sanity of the Cleveland Indians business may be the straw that breaks the cookie from our wigwam.. and that's understandable.. but unliked..

Thanks for the response...

If Carrasco is traded, I  would love that it be for a king's ransom.  Unfortunately, we're in an extreme buyer's market.  I  don't think a king's ransom is feasible this offseason, or for the foreseeable future.


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